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Sunday, November 15, 2026

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@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

My thesis is very narrow. It's also no longer speculation when it shows up in reported earnings. HBM is a very large component cost in an AI server and not what I'm arguing. There's also many bottlenecks outside of memory. An obvious example is $AXTI InP substrates, where not securing enough capacity (where cost is in hundreds of millions) would trigger ceilings to competitor optical programs. And we'd likely see accelerated procurement patterns into 2027 where capacity is hard to scale.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

The most interesting lesson Jensen Huang taught me And gave PTSD to Google executives over from his leadership at $NVDA: Was that if a critical material can be bought out for spare change eg. ~$400m (FY2028 Photonics-SOI revenue forecast for $SOI) And trigger tens of billions in economic impact to competitors for not securing supply: We're going to see game theory bottleneck supply procurement actually accelerate upstream through 2027, with or without him. I see Morgan Stanley's list highlighting CCL, ABF, PCBs, optical module components as interesting. However; I'd put it through my own narrower lens, especially focusing on smaller component cost chokepoints + bottlenecks that doesn't cost much to secure capacity over. Deleveraging/negative sentiment is indiscriminately moving the theme up and down together, so hard to argue individual fundamentals at this point. Reflecting on 2026, I also prob need to be more selective of companies entering 2027: But there's going to be a lot of outsized opportunities in bottlenecks... as new architectures like NPO/CPO emerge across the ecosystem.

Investor Letters

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The Spy Who Shagged The Market

Nvidia’s leadership scandal puts its AI-market role under scrutiny, with comparisons to AIG’s pre-GFC liquidity influence.

NVDA $3.9TAIG $43B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 4 clicks

Is Nebius Fucked?

Nebius’ Q3 beat relied on $325 million of one-off partnership fees as it raised 2027 CapEx to $40–45 billion and may need $6–11 billion of…

NBIS $32B
Daniel Romero 6 clicks

Qualcomm Custom ASICs?

Qualcomm’s Alphawave SerDes, CPU cores and HBC could support custom AI ASICs as hyperscalers build heterogeneous fleets beyond GPUs.

QCOM $185B
Chipstrat 4 clicks
RXO · short

Rxo INC

RXO, a top-five U.S. freight broker, carries roughly 5x LTM EBITDA leverage and undisclosed off-balance-sheet liabilities after its 2022…

RXO $4.7B
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