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Sunday, November 15, 2026

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@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

There's a lot of news about WT (3036) introducing their first CW DFB laser line card. More significant than people think for medium-long term. For economic impact and what revenue looks like: - $SMTC generated 74% of its revenue through distributors. $AMBA as another example, ~60-70% of their 2026 revenue went through this company. - With WT in specific, if you look at even a large company like $AVGO scaled: -> 13% of Broadcom revenue went through WT in 2020 -> 18% (2021) -> 20% (2022) -> ~21% (2023) -> ~28% (2024) -> now possibly up to ~46% (they stopped naming) Just showing how important the largest distributors in the world become to semi companies. Given how WT chairman attributed rapid growth coming from AI photonics demand (eg. DSPs to optical module makers): It becomes more interesting for a certain company that WT introduced their first CW DFB laser line card during an industry bottleneck.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Ramesh Nuggihalli, the new CEO of power plant pollution-control company Fuel Tech $FTEK, spent most of the Q3 call on strategy rather than the quarter. He’s running a planning process with outside advisors he’s worked with before, plus a smaller team already identifying acquisition targets, and plans to take the strategy and an “M&A playbook” to the board in early 2027. He listed three gaps acquisitions would fill, in this order: 1) Products: Technologies Fuel Tech doesn’t offer today. 2) Markets: Customers and end markets it doesn’t serve. 3) Business models: Such as turning its informal service work into a standalone business built on long-term service contracts. He didn’t say how much of the $27.8M of cash and investments the board would spend, but at an H.C. Wainwright conference in September, he said he doesn’t need “$50 million-$100 million deals,” just “a $2 million EBITDA company” that fills a product or channel gap. Nuggihalli’s also reviewing R&D spending on DGI, $FTEK’s technology for dissolving oxygen into water. Adoption in aquaculture (fish farming) “has been slower than anticipated,” so $FTEK is evaluating larger parts of the water market. In August, a first commercial hatchery system was the DGI milestone I said to watch. But DGI barely matters to the thesis: it’s still in pilots, Nuggihalli called $FTEK’s investment in it “modest,” the only 2026 revenue management has mentioned is $100K from a wastewater rental, and I gave it no value in August.
@leevalueroach

Lee Roach on X

I built a tool last night that scrapes ammo and gun prices across hundreds of different websites. I am seeing 9mm ammo prices up 47% y/y and .22 LR up 50% y/y. Gun market is still soft but the ammo market is tightening pretty fast and guns will likely follow. With dems sweeping I think demand for ammo and guns will continue to outpace supply. $RGR looking good here with Beretta taking massive position. I like $SWBI here too. If Olin wasn't going through that merger with Huntsman I would probably drop my nuts on the table here with their ammo division but I hate big mergers.

Investor Letters

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Q3 Earnings Updates

Q3 updates cover Crocs, Entravision and Fiserv beats, coal and oil weakness, and Xerox’s sharp decline, testing the underlying cases for…

CROX $7.5BEVC $874M
Hidden Rock Capital's Newsletter 3 clicks

The Spy Who Shagged The Market

Nvidia’s leadership scandal puts its AI-market role under scrutiny, with comparisons to AIG’s pre-GFC liquidity influence.

AIG $43B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 4 clicks

Is Nebius Fucked?

Nebius’ Q3 beat relied on $325 million of one-off partnership fees as it raised 2027 CapEx to $40–45 billion and may need $6–11 billion of…

NBIS $32B
Daniel Romero 6 clicks

Qualcomm Custom ASICs?

Qualcomm’s Alphawave SerDes, CPU cores and HBC could support custom AI ASICs as hyperscalers build heterogeneous fleets beyond GPUs.

QCOM $185B
Chipstrat 4 clicks

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