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Saturday, November 14, 2026

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@SouthernValue95

SouthernValue on X

Risk: In addition to having significant revenue at risk in China from future legislation changes (or enforcement of current legislation), I wonder if $NVDA may end up held liable for looking the other way as chips it sold ended up in China illegally. If fined for the value of all past sales, that could be many tens of billions of dollars. From @SemiAnalysis_ on Jensens ousting and illegal chip sales to China: “Our data shows more than 1.5GW of Nvidia chips, which are restricted, still ultimately ended up in China. This figure doesn’t even include chips that Nvidia created to circumvent US rules, a story we originally broke. We believe the US intelligence community is a large part of the push to get Jensen out of Nvidia. Specifically, we believe it is likely that RASA or similar legislation, which has already passed the house, will move forward. AI and chip restrictions on China are going to ramp now much faster with the biggest defender Jensen, gone.”
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

108.4m @ 25.2g/t indium from drill hole WD26-01 is still the best assayed result of 2026 at American West Metals’ $AWMLF West Desert zinc-indium deposit in Utah. At West Desert, $AWMLF has finished five more holes (WD26-04 to WD26-08) since my August write-up. WD26-07, the westernmost so far, hit a combined 140m of visual copper and zinc sulfides and 219m of visual molybdenite, while WD26-05 and WD26-06 hit visual zinc, molybdenite, and copper oxides. Those are geologists’ visual estimates, and the October 30 quarterly report expected assays for WD26-06 and WD26-07 within 1-2 weeks, and for WD26-08 within 4-6 weeks. I found no assays for WD26-03 in $AWMLF’s releases through November 9, even though the July 31 quarterly expected them within weeks. So the 2026 program’s assayed results are still the June and July ones. $AWMLF also hired GreenMet, a Washington advisory group led by former U.S. critical minerals official Drew Horn, to pursue U.S. government funding and offtake (the right to buy its output) for West Desert. GreenMet is $AWMLF’s second Washington advisor in 2026, after Ervin Graves Strategy Group in February, and the company still hasn’t disclosed any U.S. government funding. Meanwhile, the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA), which buys for the U.S. stockpile, cancelled its July request for 400+ tonnes of indium on September 30 without an award, since traders said the request was more than the market could supply. So the stockpile’s indium purchase is off for now, and the failed request showed how thin supply is outside China (~400 tonnes/year, by one trader’s estimate). Thin supply is still the argument for funding a U.S. source like West Desert, but no agency has funded one yet. Metallurgical samples from West Desert’s historical waste dumps, one of the two extra sources of metal I flagged in August, have been shipped for test work, with no results yet. So I still don’t attach any value to West Desert in my base case. Its value in my bull case depends on the WD26-06 and WD26-07 assays confirming what geologists logged in the core.

Investor Letters

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Is Nebius Fucked?

Nebius’ Q3 beat relied on $325 million of one-off partnership fees as it raised 2027 CapEx to $40–45 billion and may need $6–11 billion of…

NBIS $32B
Daniel Romero 6 clicks

Qualcomm Custom ASICs?

Qualcomm’s Alphawave SerDes, CPU cores and HBC could support custom AI ASICs as hyperscalers build heterogeneous fleets beyond GPUs.

QCOM $185B
Chipstrat 4 clicks
FFXXF · long

Helios Fairfax Partners CORP

Helios Fairfax Partners owns a 50% stake in the general partner of Helios Investment Partners, a pan-African private equity firm.

FFXXF $190M
Value Investors Club 1 click

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