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Saturday, November 14, 2026

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Fajasy on X

Agility Robotics $AGLT, the maker of the Digit humanoid robot, now expects early access to Digit 5, its next-generation model, to begin in H1 2027. Digit 5 would reach early customers in December, President Daniel Diez told Forbes in August. In my September 6 deep dive, I called the December date the one to watch. Agility gave the new timeline in its Q3 financials, filed November 13 alongside the final 10-Q of Churchill Capital Corp XI, the SPAC it merged with on November 4. Holders of 61.5% of the SPAC's public shares redeemed them for ~$10.29/share, taking ~$261.8M out of the trust. So Agility netted ~$334.1M from the deal, plus the $100M of SAFEs it raised in July. In the S-4 (the merger filing), the no-redemption case came to ~$576M. The Q3 financials also show: → Cash: $64.9M as of September 30, down from $103.0M at the end of 2025, even after the $100M of SAFEs. → Burn: $131.6M of operating cash outflow in the first nine months, up 87% y/y, plus $6.8M of capex. → Revenue: $0.36M in the first nine months, down 79% y/y, since 2025's one-time robot sales didn't repeat. Add the deal's ~$334.1M to September 30 cash, and Agility has ~$399M. At the first nine months' pace of ~$184M/year, including capex, the ~$399M lasts a little over two years, with Digit 5's rollout now running through 2027. The closing release did add two customer updates: $GXO, the logistics company, will deploy Digit at two more U.S. sites starting in early 2027, and $AGCO, the farm equipment maker, will pilot Digit in 2027, with no order sizes given. At $7.36/share, $AGLT's market cap is ~$2.26B on ~307M shares, counting ~61.0M options and RSUs and 4.2M warrants. My deep dive valued the 1,000-robot Digit 5 order book alone at $4.69-7.66/share, at 10-20x its ~$100M of yearly revenue plus cash. Redone with the actual cash and share count, the range is closer to $4.55-7.81/share, and $AGLT now trades inside the range. $AGLT also trades 28% below the ~$10.29/share redeeming holders received, and below the ~$7.72/share the July SAFE investors paid. My deep dive said I'd only consider buying after the post-close washout, once the lock-up supply clears and Digit 5's ramp is clearer. The washout came, but the other two conditions haven't: 1) Lock-up supply: Agility's existing holders and the sponsor stay locked up until early May 2027, and the PIPE's 20.1M shares, more than the ~16M public shares left after redemptions, are being registered for resale. 2) Digit 5: Early access now starts in H1 2027 instead of December, with wider availability over the following 6-9 months.
@SouthernValue95

SouthernValue on X

Risk: In addition to having significant revenue at risk in China from future legislation changes (or enforcement of current legislation), I wonder if $NVDA may end up held liable for looking the other way as chips it sold ended up in China illegally. If fined for the value of all past sales, that could be many tens of billions of dollars. From @SemiAnalysis_ on Jensens ousting and illegal chip sales to China: “Our data shows more than 1.5GW of Nvidia chips, which are restricted, still ultimately ended up in China. This figure doesn’t even include chips that Nvidia created to circumvent US rules, a story we originally broke. We believe the US intelligence community is a large part of the push to get Jensen out of Nvidia. Specifically, we believe it is likely that RASA or similar legislation, which has already passed the house, will move forward. AI and chip restrictions on China are going to ramp now much faster with the biggest defender Jensen, gone.”

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