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Friday, November 13, 2026

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@convequity

Convequity on X

Been thinking about the $ANT Anthropic IPO and I keep coming back to a couple of things that don't quite add up for me. Anthropic works hard to come across as a company for everyone else. It set up the Long-Term Benefit Trust so the mission, not money, elects the board, and the founders are giving 20% of their shares away to the public. Then the IPO. The book is reportedly ~6x oversubscribed on up to $64B, yet $26B goes to suppliers: Google, Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, Micron, Microsoft, TSMC. With that much public demand, that feels inconsistent. It sits next to the other contradiction: leadership warns that frontier AI is dangerous without regulation, yet keeps racing the frontier. So why the suppliers? My guess: Anthropic isn't a consumer-facing company. Maybe they worry retail holders would be fickle and sell at the first wobble, while suppliers give them a steady, long-term shareholder base. That's the opposite of $TSLA Tesla, where a diehard retail base helped the company weather storm after storm. Apple too, to a degree. Those are consumer brands, though. The flip side is $PLTR Palantir. Not consumer-facing at all, and it still built a diehard retail following that stuck with it through plenty of storms. Anthropic says it's built for everyone, then hands a big slice of its IPO to its suppliers. It warns about the AI race, then keeps racing. That's the mixed messaging I can't get past.
@convequity

Convequity on X

More details are emerging about Alice Huang and her connection to Jensen Huang $NVDA: - Born around 1977 in Xiangtan, Hunan Province, China. - Attended primary and secondary schools affiliated with a state-owned machinery factory. Her classmates remember her as an assertive, big-sister figure who was always cultivating connections with people of higher status. - She then reportedly attended Xiangtan Health School, a secondary vocational school equivalent to high school, and later allegedly obtained a bachelor's degree from Hunan Normal University through continuing education. - Her father worked at the same state-owned machinery factory. Some accounts say he later became a successful businessman. - Her career has spanned media, finance, private equity and AI infrastructure. - She had two brief stints at Hunan Province TV and China's national broadcaster, CCTV, working as an outside contract journalist rather than a permanent employee. Former colleagues described her as ambitious, hardworking and sharp. - She then earned a Master of Arts in Media Management from Hong Kong Baptist University. - After that, she worked in HSBC's private banking division in Hong Kong and then at CITIC Securities in fund sales. Her husband, Kang Wei, founded Shanghai Hexi Investment Management, which invested in gaming, cloud computing and semiconductors. - She joined Hexi in 2015, holding roles including executive director, partner and fund manager. Hexi had investment ties to Phicomm, which became embroiled in a major fundraising-fraud Ponzicase. Phicomm founder Gu Guoping was sentenced to life in prison. Separately, Hexi and Kang were fined over securities disclosure and trading violations. - In 2023, she pivoted to AI computing infrastructure in Singapore, becoming managing director of Megaspeed International, an NVIDIA Cloud Partner. Later accounts describe her continuing to run the business after formally stepping down. - Megaspeed operated data centers in Malaysia and leased computing capacity to Alibaba $BABA. Overall, this looks like the career of an ambitious socialite who turns relationships and access to influential circles into business opportunities. Very unlikely to be a spy for the Chinese gov who has ceased to use honey trap and using people tied to criminal record for years.
@RagingVentures 1 click

Raging Capital Ventures on X

It is hard to game where $NVDA shares go short term, but I think it is already clear that there is too much capacity in the GPU/TPU business. Major players include: $NVDA, $AMD, $GOOG, $AMZN (selling TPUs via cloud tokens), $MRVL, and $AVGO. The sector’s fierce price competition is already evident in the form of loans, loan guarantees, direct investments, and juicy equity warrant packages. $AMD effectively gave up as much as 15%+ of its company to convince $META and OpenAI to use their products. Gun to my head, I think you could be short a basket of $AMD, $AVGO, $MRVL, and $NVDA and do very well over the next 2-3 years as the cycle matures.

Investor Letters

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MTMTY · short

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