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Friday, November 13, 2026

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@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Good question! $SIVE pre-2026 targeted custom CPO deployments like Ayar. Many of these architecturally were pushed back to 2028. Only Q3 2025, did Sivers shift to mass commercialization products, with 7 new pluggable players, including $JBL H1 2026. Sivers is also sampling NPO 200mW lasers with a series of players and hints at future 400mW capabilities for CPO. Since Sivers previously focused on custom scale up CPO players, then only recently applied their technology to near term pluggables and NPO commercialzable opportunities. They missed a lot of deployment windows others are capitalizing on now. But I think everything comes together H2 2027. I think optical TAM keeps exponentially increasing into 2030, so even if they missed 2026 or early 2027 deployments… market capture opportunity is very large relative to valuations $SIVE in my opinion is the golden goose of optical opportunities but it all comes down to to management execution, which has been slightly disappointing as of recent.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Following the $MRVL and $LITE acquisition announcement… Samsung Electronics has been doing vertical integration of their own in photonics to thermal: - New report from Bloomberg states that Samsung Electronics is in talks to buy $MOD Modine. Which supplies thermal/cooling infrastructure for AI data centers. - 2 days ago from Digitimes, Samsung has purchased series of silicon photonics patents from Rockley Photonics (that previously was bankrupt). Covering modulators and PICs, mainly around design and integration. This follows earlier leaks that “Samsung is reportedly considering acquisitions in the silicon photonics space” After Samsung’s reportedly pursues optical engine and PIC manufacturing by 2027, and CPO services by 2029. We’ll likely see this trend accelerate with M&A vertical integration across AI supply chains. Especially considering valuations from smaller upstream companies collapsed recently, despite their strategic significance.
@convequity

Convequity on X

Been thinking about the $ANT Anthropic IPO and I keep coming back to a couple of things that don't quite add up for me. Anthropic works hard to come across as a company for everyone else. It set up the Long-Term Benefit Trust so the mission, not money, elects the board, and the founders are giving 20% of their shares away to the public. Then the IPO. The book is reportedly ~6x oversubscribed on up to $64B, yet $26B goes to suppliers: Google, Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, Micron, Microsoft, TSMC. With that much public demand, that feels inconsistent. It sits next to the other contradiction: leadership warns that frontier AI is dangerous without regulation, yet keeps racing the frontier. So why the suppliers? My guess: Anthropic isn't a consumer-facing company. Maybe they worry retail holders would be fickle and sell at the first wobble, while suppliers give them a steady, long-term shareholder base. That's the opposite of $TSLA Tesla, where a diehard retail base helped the company weather storm after storm. Apple too, to a degree. Those are consumer brands, though. The flip side is $PLTR Palantir. Not consumer-facing at all, and it still built a diehard retail following that stuck with it through plenty of storms. Anthropic says it's built for everyone, then hands a big slice of its IPO to its suppliers. It warns about the AI race, then keeps racing. That's the mixed messaging I can't get past.

Investor Letters

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QXO Inc Earnings Update: Q3 2026

QXO's Q3 sales rose 79% to $4.9 billion after TopBuild and Kodiak acquisitions, while acquisition debt lifted interest expense to $163…

QXO $13B
SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets 2 clicks

Qure Anniversary Update

UniQure’s Huntington’s disease BLA has a May 1, 2027 priority-review date, with an FDA advisory committee expected in late first quarter.

QURE $1.7B
Triple S Special Situations Investing 2 clicks

Big Short: Fidelity & Guaranty

F&G’s main insurer held $66.5 billion of assets against $1.38 billion of statutory capital, while private credit, reinsurance dependence…

FG $3.1B
Mispriced Assets 3 clicks
ONT · long

Onterris INC

Onterris, formerly Montrose Environmental Group, trades at 8.6x next-12-month EBITDA as an environmental consulting and response services…

ONT $825M
Value Investors Club 1 click

Verra veerer

Verra Mobility’s Avis termination threatens 2027 earnings, while Government Solutions profit rose 25% and implied fourth-quarter guidance…

VRRM $298M
The Oak Bloke 3 clicks

FTAI 3Q26: Aero margins in focus

FTAI’s Aerospace Products margin rebounded to 31% as CFM56 module output rose, while Power deposits and contracted deliveries fund its 2027…

FTAI $20B
Stock Thoughts 5 clicks

CVX Earnings Review

Chevron’s Q3 revenue rose 35% to $65.2 billion and EBITDA 75% to $20.2 billion, while production trailed guidance and refining margins…

CVX $422B
Cestrian Capital Research 4 clicks

SNY Earnings Review

Sanofi raised FY26 guidance after Q3 sales grew 14.3% at constant currency, led by 34.8% Dupixent growth; vaccines declined 6.6%.

SNY $116B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click

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