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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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Looking Back at Another Successful Thesis

DoubleU Games raised its all-cash tender offer for DoubleDown Interactive minority holders to $16.25 per ADS from $11.25 after net cash made the earlier bid untenable.

DDI $779M
The Value Road 2 clicks

From X

@Fierce__beast

Fierce_beast on X

$EVLV I don't look at gross profit only, i look at profit to shareholders after all maintenance expenses like SBC and also capital required to grow the business. I will probably make enemies because of this hardline. On that metric the business is losing money and you'd think by now at their (9k locations?) scale they'd be a lot more profitable. Understanding how much a company currently generates in profits should be simple to understand and not require elaborate gymnastics
@Fierce__beast

Fierce_beast on X

ARR growth rate is stable finally, but what about their profitability? Think about how easy it is to game ARR and how many company's did successfully before collapsing. not sure it will happen to $evlv, but it does provide a warning to over relying on company derived KPIs, especially if that company has had a history of changing metrics, changing managements, and being successfully sued for providing inaccurate marketing material. Profitability is not improving and that is not a good sign for their LT goal you can be a company that grows revenues and expands margins, you can be a company that grows revenues but contracts margins, you can be a company that grows margins but contracts revenues. you can be a company that loses revenues and margins at the same time. which one is evolv $evlv bulls will argue that we should wait for another quarter or two before we see an inflection in profits. that eventually they will scale into their business. i'm afraid to say that i'm suspicious that profits will materialize in any meaningful way ever. if the technology was so transformative and so much better than competitors, and that they have thousands and thousands of customers already, then why is it still losing money?
@gnoble79

George Noble on X

Odd choice by the board too because she will be spending a lot of time w the attorneys, no real time to be CEO. She will have to be terminated too, along with the others involved in both the Megaspeed related stuff, as well as the financial/disclosure related issues. She was the one communicating all the misleading stuff re sales to Asia/China as well, and she was CFO when they changed their geographical rev recognition re this issue. There are going to be so many more shoes to drop on this thing it is not even funny. SELL is not a four letter word. $NVDA

Investor Letters

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Big Short: Fidelity & Guaranty

F&G’s main insurer held $66.5 billion of assets against $1.38 billion of statutory capital, while private credit, reinsurance dependence…

FG $3.2B
Mispriced Assets 2 clicks

Top Rebound Stocks for Nov’26

Texas Pacific Land's 50% selloff reflects faded data-center expectations, while its Permian royalty business generated $498 million of 2025…

TPL $19B
Rebound Capital 1 click

ASML ($ASML) Deep Dive

ASML monopolizes EUV lithography, a critical tool for leading-edge chips, with production capacity stretched through 2028 and customer…

ASML $591B
Jimmy's Journal 2 clicks
ABSSF · long

Airboss Of America CORP

AirBoss is a large North American rubber producer moving away from its existing business mix.

ABSSF $125M
Value Investors Club 1 click

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