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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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Looking Back at Another Successful Thesis

DoubleU Games raised its all-cash tender offer for DoubleDown Interactive minority holders to $16.25 per ADS from $11.25 after net cash made the earlier bid untenable.

DDI $779M
The Value Road 2 clicks

From X

@convequity

Convequity on X

Reflections on $NVDA's corporate governance after Jensen Huang's exit 1) It is strange that the CIA and the government ran the rumored China spy investigation without notifying Nvidia's board and Jensen first. The matter had been brewing for several quarters, and the news only broke after the mid-term election. 2) Jensen should have asked for a bigger stake in Nvidia, just as Elon Musk did at $TSLA. Elon set an outlandish long-term stock price target with a vesting schedule tied to it, and that gave him more control and more ownership. 3) Dual-class share structures, where the founder's shares carry extra votes, are rare among established semiconductor firms. This lack of founder voting control is a common issue across semiconductor companies. Jensen seems to have been too focused on technology and too little on politics and control. 4) Where Jensen goes next is the open question. We hope Nvidia gets him back in some way, or Elon hires him, or he finds another place to thrive. Age 63 is just the start for him. We hope he perseveres through this storm and thrives. The worst case is that he retires into a VC-like role, but we don't think he will settle for that at this stage. 5) In the best world, NVDA shareholders would vote to bring Jensen back and fire what we see as a woke board. We think that is unlikely. Share ownership is widely distributed and the investor base is very diversified. Many of those investors do not follow the company or its governance closely, so they are hard to mobilize. And the board was not constructed as thoughtfully as the one Elon built, after he suffered the same problem early in his PayPal years. 6) Those who said founder control, vision and ownership don't matter to the Nvidia business will feel they are right, and buying the dip will look great in the short term. We think they will be proven wrong over the longer term. 7) This is a great time for $AVGO, $AMD and $CBRS. But note that Broadcom and AMD have similar governance issues too.
@SouthernValue95

SouthernValue on X

In addition to having significant revenue at risk in China from future legislation changes (or enforcement of current legislation), I wonder if $NVDA may end up held liable for looking the other way as chips it sold ended up in China illegally. If fined for the value of all past sales, that could be many tens of billions of dollars. From @SemiAnalysis_ on Jensens ousting and illegal chip sales to China: “Our data shows more than 1.5GW of Nvidia chips, which are restricted, still ultimately ended up in China. This figure doesn’t even include chips that Nvidia created to circumvent US rules, a story we originally broke. We believe the US intelligence community is a large part of the push to get Jensen out of Nvidia. Specifically, we believe it is likely that RASA or similar legislation, which has already passed the house, will move forward. AI and chip restrictions on China are going to ramp now much faster with the biggest defender Jensen, gone.”

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