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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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Looking Back at Another Successful Thesis

DoubleU Games raised its all-cash tender offer for DoubleDown Interactive minority holders to $16.25 per ADS from $11.25 after net cash made the earlier bid untenable.

DDI $778M
The Value Road 4 clicks

From X

@RagingVentures 1 click

Raging Capital Ventures on X

It is hard to game where $NVDA shares go short term, but I think it is already clear that there is too much capacity in the GPU/TPU business. Major players include: $NVDA, $AMD, $GOOG, $AMZN (selling TPUs via cloud tokens), $MRVL, and $AVGO. The sector’s fierce price competition is already evident in the form of loans, loan guarantees, direct investments, and juicy equity warrant packages. $AMD effectively gave up as much as 15%+ of its company to convince $META and OpenAI to use their products. Gun to my head, I think you could be short a basket of $AMD, $AVGO, $MRVL, and $NVDA and do very well over the next 2-3 years as the cycle matures.

Investor Letters

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Qure Anniversary Update

UniQure’s Huntington’s disease BLA has a May 1, 2027 priority-review date, with an FDA advisory committee expected in late first quarter.

QURE $1.7B
Triple S Special Situations Investing 2 clicks

Big Short: Fidelity & Guaranty

F&G’s main insurer held $66.5 billion of assets against $1.38 billion of statutory capital, while private credit, reinsurance dependence…

FG $3.2B
Mispriced Assets 3 clicks

Top Rebound Stocks for Nov’26

Texas Pacific Land's 50% selloff reflects faded data-center expectations, while its Permian royalty business generated $498 million of 2025…

TPL $19B
Rebound Capital 2 clicks
BBWI · long

Bath and Body Works

Bath & Body Works is the remaining Les Wexner retail business after The Limited’s former brands were separated or sold.

BBWI $4.4B
Value Investors Club 1 click

Return of the Power King

China Yuchai (CYD) seeks a 2026 rerating as governance normalization, global expansion, AI data-center power demand, and green-powertrain…

CYD $750M
Maius Partners 6 clicks

Greg Abel’s Unique Challenge

Greg Abel must preserve Berkshire Hathaway’s decentralized culture while improving lagging subsidiaries as Warren Buffett’s successor.

BRK.A $1.3T
The Rational Walk

Haw Par Corporation Limited

Haw Par combines Tiger Balm’s stable cash flows with property, leisure and healthcare operations plus stakes in UOB and UOL.

HAWPY $2.8B
smallvalue. 4 clicks

The Costco of Flooring ($FND)

Floor & Decor operates 262 warehouse-format flooring stores, pairing broad in-stock hard-surface selection with design services as it gains…

FND $5.3B
D Invests

QXO

QXO, Brad Jacobs’ building-materials distributor roll-up, targets rapid acquisitions and a $50 billion revenue run rate by 2032.

QXO $14B
Kairos Research

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