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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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Looking Back at Another Successful Thesis

DoubleU Games raised its all-cash tender offer for DoubleDown Interactive minority holders to $16.25 per ADS from $11.25 after net cash made the earlier bid untenable.

DDI $778M
The Value Road 4 clicks

From X

@RagingVentures 1 click

Raging Capital Ventures on X

It is hard to game where $NVDA shares go short term, but I think it is already clear that there is too much capacity in the GPU/TPU business. Major players include: $NVDA, $AMD, $GOOG, $AMZN (selling TPUs via cloud tokens), $MRVL, and $AVGO. The sector’s fierce price competition is already evident in the form of loans, loan guarantees, direct investments, and juicy equity warrant packages. $AMD effectively gave up as much as 15%+ of its company to convince $META and OpenAI to use their products. Gun to my head, I think you could be short a basket of $AMD, $AVGO, $MRVL, and $NVDA and do very well over the next 2-3 years as the cycle matures.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

I calculated how much of the Storm copper project’s build American West Metals $AWMLF has to fund beyond a US$40M loan from Storm’s future copper buyer, after its new pre-feasibility study (PFS). Ocean Partners, the metals trader that holds Storm’s offtake (the right to buy all of its output), agreed in April 2025 to lend up to US$40M of the initial capex defined by the PEA (Storm’s first-pass study) through a senior secured loan, subject to a bankable feasibility study and a final investment decision (FID). The loan covered 84.4% of the PEA’s US$47.4M, and covers 49.4% of the PFS’s US$81.0M. Counting pre-development, the part of Storm’s US$108.3M pre-production cost that the loan doesn’t cover tripled to US$68.3M from US$22.1M. $AWMLF’s 80% of the US$68.3M gap is ~US$55M, more than twice its ~US$24.6M market cap. The PFS lists offtake prepayments, project debt, build-own-operate deals, and Canadian critical minerals programs as non-dilutive options. Its cash flow model also counts a ~US$24M refund from Canada’s 30% clean technology manufacturing tax credit, but the refund only arrives in the second year of production, after construction. Aston Bay Holdings (TSXV: BAY), which owns the other 20% of Storm, only starts funding its share after the DFS (the next, more detailed study) and the FID, so $AWMLF pays for everything until then. After the FID, Aston Bay’s 20% of the gap is ~US$14M, more than its own ~US$11M market cap. If Aston Bay doesn’t pay, its stake gets diluted, and below 10% it turns into a 2% royalty. So $AWMLF may end up funding more than 80% of the build, and its stake in Storm would grow as well.

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Qure Anniversary Update

UniQure’s Huntington’s disease BLA has a May 1, 2027 priority-review date, with an FDA advisory committee expected in late first quarter.

QURE $1.7B
Triple S Special Situations Investing 2 clicks

Big Short: Fidelity & Guaranty

F&G’s main insurer held $66.5 billion of assets against $1.38 billion of statutory capital, while private credit, reinsurance dependence…

FG $3.2B
Mispriced Assets 3 clicks

Top Rebound Stocks for Nov’26

Texas Pacific Land's 50% selloff reflects faded data-center expectations, while its Permian royalty business generated $498 million of 2025…

TPL $19B
Rebound Capital 2 clicks
PYPL · long

Paypal Holdings INC

PayPal’s valuation implies free cash flow will shrink 9.3% annually over the next decade, framing a long thesis against its recent revenue…

PYPL $49B
Value Investors Club

Envista (NVST)

Envista, Danaher’s dental spin-off, is pitched as a de-risked long-term opportunity after U.S.

NVST $4.1B
Healthy Stock Picks

Brookfield's New Lawsuit

Brookfield faces whistleblower allegations over its VC funds; $569 million of Q1 buybacks challenges claims that $8 million of remaining…

BN $94B
310 Value’s Newsletter 3 clicks

When extend and pretend is a virtue

Upstart says longer repayment terms lifted Q1 debt-settlement acceptances 50%, but does not disclose delinquency changes or the number of…

UPST $2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 2 clicks

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