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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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Peloton: Beyond The Bike

Peloton’s connected-fitness subscribers fell 9% year over year to 2.475 million, with another high-single-digit holiday decline forecast as management pursues a turnaround.

PTON $2.6B
TSOH Investment Research

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Root's $ROOT annualized premium run rate (premiums in force) fell 5.4% y/y in Q3, nearly double Q2's 2.8% drop, as larger carriers cut prices and Root gave up direct-to-consumer growth to protect returns. Policy growth offset the lower premium per policy in Q1, but policies in force were flat from June at 484k (+3.8% y/y) while premium per policy fell 8.9% y/y, to $1,441. $ROOT's gross accident period loss ratio (losses from crashes in the quarter over premium earned) rose 4.6 points y/y, to 61.1%, but only 1.6 points from Q3 2025's first estimate of 59.5%, which $ROOT has since revised down to 56.5%. The 10-Q blames (1) higher repair and medical costs per claim, (2) more frequent claims, and (3) a shift in channel mix, so claims costs are rising while premium per policy falls, though 61.1% is still inside $ROOT's 60-65% target range. The net combined ratio (losses plus expenses over premium; under 100% is an underwriting profit) improved 4.9 points y/y, to 97.2%, but ~4.2 points of that is Carvana warrant expense falling $15.3M after a one-time catch-up in Q3 2025, so the underlying gain was under a point. $ROOT's Q3 letter to shareholders says it repurchased $36.2M of stock "during the third quarter," but the 10-Q shows $15.5M in Q3, down from over $20M in Q2; the $36.2M is the total since the May authorization, with $38.8M left as of September 30. $ROOT also began deploying its new pricing model in Q4, which it expects to be its largest improvement in predictive power to date, and which it says lets it cut rates for better drivers while keeping its target returns. At ~$56/share, $ROOT trades at ~2.6x its $327.0M book value as of September 30, the low end of the $55-80 base case in my August 10 update, on a Q3 annualized ROE of ~18%, the low end of that case's 18-22%. So I read Q3 as $ROOT playing the soft market the way I expected, holding its margins and shrinking rather than buying growth, which keeps the stock priced as if it never grows again. What I'd want to see from here: 1) Policies: Whether policies in force grow from the flat 484k once the new pricing model reaches more of the book. 2) Partnerships: Whether new business through partners and independent agents, up 19% y/y in Q3 and now 52% of the total, keeps growing. 3) Loss ratio: Whether 2026's first estimates come down a year later, like Q1-Q3 2025 did.
@DOMOCAPITAL

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

$PESI results showing great stabilization with the key line being: "Results were held back by customer-directed changes in treatment protocols on a Hanford-related waste stream, which required performance testing and final approvals that were not provided until late August. Processing did not reach full operations until September, pushing revenue out of the quarter." Despite this - EBITDA improved from -$6M in Q2 to -$3M in Q3. Most importantly - backlogs rose 25% quarter over quarter and Services gross margin nearly doubled. I would expect management to provide color on the call that Q4 could potentially be break-even which I think will be a seminal moment for the company (and the shares). With the Hanford progress (and with the elections being over), the odds of grouting at East beginning sooner vs later have skyrocketed. I think it's likely just up from here in regards to the share price. Wouldn't be surprised to see this back over $20 soon. It's a long-term hold for DOMO Capital as this should be a $100+ stock once Hanford fully ramps.

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DoorDash’s FBA Moment

DoorDash’s $17 billion Instacart deal targets DashMart warehouse scale, where 99%+ order accuracy and faster delivery address the limits of…

DASH $78BKR $41B
MBI Deep Dives 2 clicks

Cat-Scratch Fervo

Fervo Energy raised $2 billion in its May IPO, then fell nearly 70% below issue price after a Morpheus short report, despite targeting 1 GW…

FRVO $3.8B
Doomberg 4 clicks
OSW · short

One Spa World

OneSpaWorld (OSW) faces about 37% downside as its valuation requires unattainable growth in average revenue per customer after major-market…

OSW $3.1B
Value Investors Club

Sea Ltd Earnings Update: Q3 2026

Sea Ltd reported Q3 2026 revenue of $8.6 billion, up 43.4% year over year, while net income rose 34.0%.

SE $45B
SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets 6 clicks

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