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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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Two things I’m watching could change my read on the U.S. economy: → Fed’s December 8-9 meeting and core PCE: Another 0.25% hike with core PCE at 3.1%, or core PCE below 2.9% with the fed funds rate unchanged, pushes the real rate (the Fed’s policy rate minus core PCE inflation) above 1%, which Growth × Policy calls late cycle. That favors commodities, value stocks, emerging markets and banks over long-term Treasuries and growth stocks. Futures put the odds of a December hike at ~75%, and October’s core PCE comes out November 25. → Bank-held AI debt: In September, the Financial Times reported that ~$18B of bank loans for Project Jupiter, a data center $ORCL is leasing in New Mexico to serve OpenAI, were being quoted at 89-91 cents on the dollar, and the banks were stuck holding more of the debt than they had planned. At its October 28 Investor Day, $ORCL said its capex peaks in FY2027-2028 and steps down in FY2029 (years ending in May), when it expects at least $30B of free cash flow.

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DoorDash’s FBA Moment

DoorDash’s $17 billion Instacart deal targets DashMart warehouse scale, where 99%+ order accuracy and faster delivery address the limits of…

DASH $78BKR $41B
MBI Deep Dives 2 clicks

Cat-Scratch Fervo

Fervo Energy raised $2 billion in its May IPO, then fell nearly 70% below issue price after a Morpheus short report, despite targeting 1 GW…

FRVO $3.8B
Doomberg 4 clicks
OSW · short

One Spa World

OneSpaWorld (OSW) faces about 37% downside as its valuation requires unattainable growth in average revenue per customer after major-market…

OSW $3.1B
Value Investors Club

Sea Ltd Earnings Update: Q3 2026

Sea Ltd reported Q3 2026 revenue of $8.6 billion, up 43.4% year over year, while net income rose 34.0%.

SE $45B
SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets 6 clicks

Airbnb 3Q26: Business Update

Airbnb’s 3Q26 revenue rose 19% to $4.9 billion as nights and seats grew 16%, with app bookings up 29% and Reserve Now Pay Later adding…

ABNB $108B
Speedwell Memos 2 clicks

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