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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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Looking Back at Another Successful Thesis

DoubleU Games raised its all-cash tender offer for DoubleDown Interactive minority holders to $16.25 per ADS from $11.25 after net cash made the earlier bid untenable.

DDI $778M
The Value Road 4 clicks

From X

@convequity 2 clicks

Convequity on X

A laser that only one company can supply will not scale to the volumes AI needs. That is the main reason $LITE is a less attractive investment to us than it was a few quarters ago. Our post on Lumentum got more attention than we expected, so we want to set out the argument in plain terms, including what we think about microLED. We did not say microLED will certainly happen. 1. The part in question is Lumentum's ultra-high-power external laser source. In co-packaged optics, the optical parts sit inside the chip package. The laser sits outside, in its own module, and its light is carried into the package by fibre. That outside module is the external laser source. Ultra-high-power means one laser produces enough light to feed many optical channels at once. 2. If only one vendor can make that laser, it has little chance of reaching meaningful volume. One supplier cannot carry a part the whole industry needs. So the industry has to find other paths around that bottleneck. 3. The first likely path is micro-VCSELs. A VCSEL is a vertical-cavity surface-emitting laser: a tiny laser that sends light out of the top of the chip rather than out of its edge. They are made many at a time on a wafer, and each one is low power. A micro-VCSEL is a very small version. Many small lasers do the job of one very powerful one. 4. The second path is a less powerful laser packed inside the NPO package. CW stands for continuous wave: the laser emits a steady beam, and a separate part, the modulator, switches that light on and off to carry data. NPO is near-packaged optics: the optical engine sits on the board right next to the chip, rather than inside the chip package or in a pluggable module at the front of the switch. In this path the CW laser is still fairly high power, but not ultra-high power, and it sits inside the optics package instead of in a separate external module. 5. The third path is microLED. A microLED is a very small light-emitting diode, the same kind of device as in a display, not a laser. Each one is switched directly to carry data, and many of them run in parallel over short distances. 6. On microLED, the consensus on X is that it will not work for AI interconnects. We are not saying it will certainly happen. It is one of several alternatives. But there is good research work on it, and it has a chance. Most of the criticism we see is aimed at one architecture. The research we rate uses microLEDs in a different architecture, and the criticism does not address it. 7. Lumentum will still grow. But compared with the previous few quarters it is a less attractive investment, because its ultra-high-power laser is the part the industry has to find a way around. We trimmed most of our Lumentum position earlier this year, around when the share price began to flatten.
@ParadisLabs

Paradis on X

With the Singapore Grand Prix in a few hours, I can't help but draw comparisons to the financial markets and the AI trade. One slow pitstop or a miscalculated overtake can undo weeks of preparation and cost millions of dollars. So with AI and semiconductor earnings fast approaching, it feels like we need a quick pitstop to get the race back on track. Rates remain high. Oil prices are elevated. Fresh frontier lab ARR concerns. AI capex. Circular financing.....all create some dark clouds which have resulted in de-risked positioning and low sentiment. Similarly, consumer confidence is low. New research from Morgan Stanley finds that net sentiment from Americans towards AI is at +14% compared with -20% for data center construction, with water requirements and environmental concerns among the biggest objections. It therefore seems like AI policy will become an even bigger stumbling block in the years to come... But the positive is that business fundamentals have remained strong highlighted by recent sold-out comments from $MU and $LITE CEOs. Plus $TSM reporting 55% YoY revenue growth as the de-facto proxy for the wider AI trade. My beloved Chelsea won 5-1 yesterday. But conceding even just 1 goal won't be good enough for the AI trade. With sentiment at fresh lows, I feel like all the key infrastructure companies need to report without any hiccups.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$OC

Investor Letters

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Qure Anniversary Update

UniQure’s Huntington’s disease BLA has a May 1, 2027 priority-review date, with an FDA advisory committee expected in late first quarter.

QURE $1.7B
Triple S Special Situations Investing 2 clicks

Big Short: Fidelity & Guaranty

F&G’s main insurer held $66.5 billion of assets against $1.38 billion of statutory capital, while private credit, reinsurance dependence…

FG $3.2B
Mispriced Assets 3 clicks

Top Rebound Stocks for Nov’26

Texas Pacific Land's 50% selloff reflects faded data-center expectations, while its Permian royalty business generated $498 million of 2025…

TPL $19B
Rebound Capital 2 clicks

Peloton: Beyond The Bike

Peloton’s connected-fitness subscribers fell 9% year over year to 2.475 million, with another high-single-digit holiday decline forecast as…

PTON $2.6B
TSOH Investment Research 3 clicks
MONOY · long

Monotaro CO LTD

MonotaRO, traded as MONOY in the U.S. and 3064 in Japan, is a Japanese MRO distributor recommended as a long.

MONOY $7.4B
Value Investors Club

Quick note on LSAK and GRPN

Lesaka expects its Bank Zero acquisition to close by end-January 2027, though it could still close this calendar year.

GRPN $500M
Mispriced Assets 5 clicks

DoorDash’s FBA Moment

DoorDash’s $17 billion Instacart deal targets DashMart warehouse scale, where 99%+ order accuracy and faster delivery address the limits of…

DASH $78BKR $41B
MBI Deep Dives 3 clicks

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