Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
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Monday, November 9, 2026

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Seed Corn

Chiron’s failed $49 million Beaumont sale and $178 million Pinnacle acquisition leave XRN with $70 million of liquidity and medical-office assets to fund future deals.

XRN $402M
Orphan REITs

From X

@valuedontlie

Colin King on X

Ugly chart at $APTV Maybe one of my favorite setups right now despite "tough industry" dynamics... Lapping one-time VGNT spin costs so FCF should jump to $1B+ next year (on $8B market cap = 12.5% FCF yield) and committed to buyback stock with 100% of FCF through 2027 Assuming no operational/industry improvement, it's not hard to get $7-8 EPS by 2028 (vs. $5.70 in '26) As a bonus, this management team has done 2 spins in 10 years and wouldn't be surprised if they spin the (better) engineered components business
@convequity

Convequity on X

I think the Oracle credit story could look very different in 2028 and 2029 from what the market is pricing today. $ORCL has priced $10 billion of stock and $10 billion of bonds to fund its AI buildout. Management expects free cash flow to turn positive in the second half of fiscal 2028. The interesting part is how Oracle gets there. AI customers need the capacity, and those customers also have relationships with the suppliers building the infrastructure. Customer prepayments and supplier financing can move some of the funding further upstream rather than leaving Oracle to finance everything itself. I'd also watch whether support can extend further up the supply chain. The final cost of a data center is not the same as the underlying cost of the components, so there may be room for suppliers or their suppliers to provide credit backing with less exposure than the headline project value. The actual contracts and who bears losses matter here. Oracle's five-year CDS has been trading close to 300 basis points. I'm curious about the other side of that trade: who is underwriting the protection, and what happens if Oracle reaches positive free cash flow and the fear around AI infrastructure financing eases? Selling protection is still a risky bet. A premium can look attractive right up until the underlying credit deteriorates, and spreads can widen before the trade works. But if Oracle delivers the capacity and its customers pay for it, I think the picture in 2028–29 could be very different from today's gloomy consensus.
@InvestSpecial

Dalius - Special Sits on X

While everything is down, $RSVR keeps delivering. Another solid Q2, another guidance raise. The review of the founder-led bid keeps dragging on. Given the steady improvements in the business, I wouldn't be surprised if the special committee is holding out for a higher price. A bump certainly looks possible. But with the spread down to just 1.5%, the risk/reward isn't nearly as compelling anymore. Up 17% since SSI write-up. Trimming heavily 👇

Investor Letters

All letters

DoorDash and Google

DoorDash and Google.

DASH $86B
Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. 3 clicks

Vicor Update, Part Four

Vicor’s Federal Circuit hearing put Foxconn’s disputed patent license under pressure, reinforcing its AI server royalty model and licensing…

VICR $6.8B
CV's Substack 2 clicks

Floor & Decor 3Q26: Business Update

Floor & Decor’s 3Q26 sales rose 3% while comparable sales fell 1.4%; it cut 2027 openings to 10-15 as high mortgage rates pressure…

FND $5B
Speedwell Memos 1 click
BW · short

Babcock & Wilcox

Babcock & Wilcox is priced for AI power demand despite a one-time related-party project, with FY2028 EBITDA 35% below consensus implying…

BW $486M
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

Why I Agree With Rob Vinall on Wix

Wix’s paying-subscriber conversion fell from 2.72% to 2.01% since 2019, while Business Solutions drove growth and activist-led cost cuts…

WIX $3.4B
Ezra's Notes 1 click

Not So Fast

Entravision, the portfolio’s largest position, fell more than 40% from its highs as Q3 returns dropped to 37.8% YTD.

EVC $832M
The Mikro Kap 6 clicks

FTAI Aviation Deep Dive

FTAI Aviation is converting retired CFM56 jet engines into 25-megawatt data-center generators, supported by a $1.465 billion order likely…

FTAI $17B
CV's Substack 1 click

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