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Sunday, November 8, 2026

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NEW POSITION: Google LEAPS

Alphabet bought long-dated GOOGL calls after a 12.6% earnings drop, betting AI monetization and distribution overcome capex pressure and lift shares above $400 within two years.

GOOGL $3.5T
Hated Moats 1 click

From X

@convequity

Convequity on X

In our view, distributors may have accumulated inventory because they expected shortages, and that inventory could add supply and pressure memory prices, though we have not verified the reports. Disk use in one of our agent environments has been heavy. That is evidence of storage demand. It tells us little about how much DRAM or HBM the models need while running. Existing suppliers and Chinese manufacturers are expanding production. Chinese manufacturers reportedly hold enough lithography machines for three to four years of expansion. Reports of large distributor inventories, which we have not verified, raise another risk: distributors could sell down stock accumulated in anticipation of shortages, adding supply and putting further pressure on prices. We hold $LRCX for manufacturing equipment, $RMBS for memory interfaces, and $SNDK for storage and high-bandwidth flash. These give us several ways to benefit from growing data demand without relying entirely on high memory prices.
@leevalueroach 1 click

Lee Roach on X

Monroe $MNRO is selling off on a weak Q2, down around 9% premarket. I think most of the market is reading the headline and missing what's buried in the new credit agreement. The Oct 23 refinancing with Ares ($250M term loan + $125M revolver, EX-10.23) runs well over 100 pages. Deep in the definitions is a "Permitted Change of Control" clause, and it's very specific: - One sale to a private-equity sponsor can happen without triggering a default - It must happen by Oct 23, 2027, a 12-month window - The sponsor needs $1.5B+ AUM, can't be on a disqualified-firm list that Ares and Monro pre-agreed, and must be in an approved jurisdiction - Pro forma lease-adjusted leverage must be 5.50x or less - Sponsor equity must be at least equal to all funded debt, including finance leases - Lenders get a 0.50% fee, and the sponsor can add back up to $2M/yr of management fees Lenders don't negotiate a provision this detailed (a named AUM floor, a pre-agreed blacklist, a fixed window) for a scenario nobody is considering. Meanwhile the board's strategic review, which includes a possible sale, has been open since May. None of this means a deal is coming. No transaction has been announced, and the same agreement also restricts the dividend and adds real interest cost. But headline-driven selling is pricing Monro as a standalone story. The credit agreement says the lenders are planning for a sale to PE and that deal is close.

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Floor & Decor 3Q26: Business Update

Floor & Decor’s 3Q26 sales rose 3% while comparable sales fell 1.4%; it cut 2027 openings to 10-15 as high mortgage rates pressure…

FND $5B
Speedwell Memos 1 click
MTMTY · short

Metlen Energy & Metals PLC

Metlen Energy & Metals faces a 40% short case centered on its overpriced aluminium, alumina and Greek power businesses.

MTMTY $6.8B
Value Investors Club

Post Q3 EVC Update

EVC's Q3 update cites $30 million for a single station, a broadcast-business sale and stronger positioning for 2027.

EVC $832M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 23 clicks

Entravision Q3 Update

Entravision’s Q3 ad-tech revenue reached $177.2 million, up 133% year over year, while total revenue rose 88% to $226.3 million and diluted…

EVC $832M
The Value Road 4 clicks

Axon 3Q26 Business Update

Axon cut full-year guidance after delayed federal Dedrone contracts slowed 3Q revenue growth to 28%, while software and services grew 43%.

AXON $31B
Speedwell Memos 4 clicks

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