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Sunday, November 8, 2026

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@StableBread

Fajasy on X

When I first wrote up Quantum $QMCO on May 6, 2026, at $7.36/share, it traded at ~0.85x EV/Sales. By my August 16 update, where I said I’d look again if its sales multiple gave back part of its re-rate while demand still outran supply, $QMCO was at $26.11. The stock then ran another 32.1% to a $34.50 close on October 2, 2026, a week before $QMCO fired its CFO. At $20.25/share, $QMCO has a market cap of $798.1M and an EV of $825.3M ($902.3M on 44.6M diluted shares - $77.0M of cash, including the $22.6M warrant and option holders would pay to exercise, with no debt). That’s 2.8x TTM revenue, down from 4.9x at the October 2 peak and 3.7x at the $26.11 price in my August update (measured the same way), but still 34.4x the September quarter’s $6M ±$1M of adjusted EBITDA guidance, annualized. So $QMCO isn’t cheap on profits yet, since its adjusted EBITDA margin is still under 10%. The sales multiple has given back part of its re-rate, and by management’s account, demand still outran supply as of the June-quarter call.
@ACapitalLP 2 clicks

A Capital on X

𝙀𝙭-𝘼𝙣𝙩𝙚 𝙫𝙨. 𝙀𝙭-𝙋𝙤𝙨𝙩 𝘾𝙖𝙩𝙖𝙡𝙮𝙨𝙩𝙨 One of the more important distinctions in catalyst-driven investing is “ex-ante” vs. “ex-post” catalysts (my words). Both can offer significant valuation dislocations, but the mechanics of realizing that value are fundamentally different… “Ex-ante” trades are cleaner. You identify a gap between price and intrinsic value, with an upcoming event (spin-off, asset sale, regulatory decision, etc.) that can force the market to reassess the security. You have a mechanism for value realization and at least (some) visibility into timing. “Ex-post” trades are much harder. Something unexpected happens, investors “shoot first, ask questions later,” and the stock collapses. Deep-value and distressed investors love these situations because the apparent discount to intrinsic value can be enormous. But the event that created the dislocation does absolutely nothing to resolve it. Look at $BAYN, where an identifiable June litigation catalyst helped drive a meaningful rerating. Contrast that with $CODI following its Lugano accounting scandal, where the stock collapsed from the high teens into the single digits. It took months of financial reporting progress, improved visibility, and renewed confidence for the stock to recover even partially. On the flip side, look at $VRRM following its major contract loss, where what initially looked like a massive overreaction was followed by further deterioration, with the stock now at $2.80. The irony is that ex-post trades almost always require a new “mini ex-ante” catalyst to unlock value. Otherwise you’re simply betting that the market eventually recognizes something is cheap. That can take years, and even then the security may never recover anywhere close to its prior valuation. The lesson is that a catalyst creating a valuation gap is not the same as a catalyst closing it. Cheapness is not a catalyst, and the magnitude of a selloff tells you very little about the probability of recovery…

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Post Q3 EVC Update

EVC's Q3 update cites $30 million for a single station, a broadcast-business sale and stronger positioning for 2027.

EVC $832M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 23 clicks

Entravision Q3 Update

Entravision’s Q3 ad-tech revenue reached $177.2 million, up 133% year over year, while total revenue rose 88% to $226.3 million and diluted…

EVC $832M
The Value Road 4 clicks
TNLIF · long

Trainline PLC

Trainline’s buyback and high free-cash-flow yield support a long thesis.

TNLIF $903M
Value Investors Club 1 click

Axon 3Q26 Business Update

Axon cut full-year guidance after delayed federal Dedrone contracts slowed 3Q revenue growth to 28%, while software and services grew 43%.

AXON $31B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

AMD Q3 FY26, Annotated

AMD's Q3 revenue rose 45% to $13.4 billion as data center reached $8.5 billion, 64% of sales, driven by EPYC and Instinct ramps.

AMD $660B
Chipstrat 2 clicks

GREAT DEC-TECTIVE WORK

Diversified Energy reported $255.6 million of “true” nine-month free cash flow, while its $1.8 billion Birch acquisition would shift…

DEC $900M
The Oak Bloke 3 clicks

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