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Sunday, November 8, 2026

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NEW POSITION: Google LEAPS

Alphabet bought long-dated GOOGL calls after a 12.6% earnings drop, betting AI monetization and distribution overcome capex pressure and lift shares above $400 within two years.

GOOGL $3.5T
Hated Moats

From X

@ACapitalLP

A Capital on X

There’s really no difference between an industry-focused pod analyst betting on $NVDA earnings and a college kid betting on the Michigan State game on Kalshi… If anything, Kalshi is more intellectually honest. You know exactly what you’re betting on, what the odds are, and what you stand to win or lose. In the institutional investment world, you just have to dress up the same probabilistic wager with a 40-page deck, an elaborate earnings model, and a sufficiently sophisticated-sounding variant perception… One is called gambling. The other is called fundamental research.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Various commentary from Qualcomm, Arm, to Meta executives this week during the AI selloff: $LITE CEO: "You had a comment from the CEO of $IREN and I'd second that. There's a massive disconnect in what we're seeing in our demand books. And what the markets are showing. And yet you're seeing a massive, massive selloff." (Fri, Nov 6) $AMD CEO CNBC: "We're at the very beginning of the adoption cycle, where people can see where AI and superintelligence will take us" "We are seeing demand being higher than supply" (Wed, Nov 4) $ARM CEO regarding a debate whether AI infrastructure spending is about to peak: "I think in some states where it gets harder, other states may pick it up to make it easier, but I do believe strongly that if the US hesitates in any way shape performance in terms of data center buildout... "The rest of the world is ready and willing. There is just huge demand for this capacity. And I think globally the US really wants to be able to compete against China. China is not slowing down at all." (Thu, Nov 5) $APLD CEO: Bank construction lending, project financing and bond markets remain available, although interest rates and credit spreads have risen "The big risk is delivering on time." "The demand picture is extremely robust." (Mon, Nov 2) $QCOM CEO: "It's not demand bound. It's a supply bound." "We're short on wafers, we're short on substrate, we're short on assembly. Everything is short because demand is very, very high." "I think what the market is reacting to is what is the speed of the compute build out." $META on political risk: "We did have a governor that won last night who did make data centers a big part of the platform. Say as soon as we get past the inauguration, let's meet because we don't want to lose this investment in our town. We don't want these jobs to go elsewhere." (Wed, Nov 4) Even politicians campaigning against data centers are negotiating. But Meta's president also emphasized that starting new US DCs will become more difficult. TLDR: -> Extremely bullish commentary from accelerator players, networking, and semi companies -> DC developers report strong pricing/demand, but increasingly emphasize financing, permitting and execution risks (more cautious) -> Politicians that previously campaigned against DCs are showing cooperation There's an important difference between demand disappearing and demand being delayed by the inability to build fast enough. Despite the severity of the selloff, I'm not seeing evidence of widespread AI demand destruction in commentary.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Toast $TOST, the restaurant software and payments company, reported its most profitable quarter yet on Tuesday, in the same 8-K that announced President and CFO Elena Gomez is stepping down. I bought $TOST as a long-term hold when I wrote it up on June 2 at $24/share. It closed Friday at $34.67, up 44.5% since then, and 3.4% above its $33.53 close before the report. Here’s what stood out in the Q3 report: → Locations: ~8,500 net adds, taking 2026 to ~25,000 through September (~7,000 in Q1 and ~9,500 in Q2), ahead of the 30,000/year pace my thesis requires. Total locations reached ~189,000, up 21%. → Recurring gross profit: Up 27% to $642M (non-GAAP subscription and fintech gross profit). $TOST’s total take rate (recurring gross profit as a share of the payment volume it processes) rose to 1.04% from 0.98% a year ago, per Gomez on the Q3 call. → Profit: GAAP operating income nearly doubled to $165M from $84M, and net income rose to $169M from $105M, or $0.29/diluted share. → Adjusted EBITDA: $240M, above the $210-220M guide and up from $176M a year ago. → Free cash flow: $181M, up from $153M, but only 75% of adjusted EBITDA, since $TOST chose to buy and hold more hardware inventory (due to rising memory prices). Gomez expects conversion to improve in Q4. → Buybacks: None in Q3, after $486M in H1 2026, with ~$100M left on the authorization. $TOST also raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA guide for the third time in 2026, to $840-850M, and now expects recurring gross profit to grow 26% (up from 23-25%). Safe to say the core business is running ahead of my thesis.
@aleabitoreddit 1 click

Serenity on X

It think it's stupid that "AI Bubble" gets used over and over. In infra names you have: - 1-3x fwd P/E memory companies from Samsung to $ESMT. With HBM players now having hyperscaler multi-year price floor LTAs. - Optical companies like $POET traded -$97M under net cash. Valuing the operating business very negatively, not even at $0. - While AI companies with larger premiums continue to record demand over the next 3-5 years. Such as the new $20B LTAs signed w/ $COHR to $5B LTAs signed w/ $LITE. Can someone in the media honestly see negative EV high-beta optical companies, where 2 years of burnrate would still value the company below $0. or single digit memory companies with contracted demand + price floors years out and say that's a bubble? Many of these names are extremely profitable today... But obviously there's other elements inside the theme, such as: - Certain startups like Instinct that look like a private valuation bubble. - Leveraged Neoclouds that didn't finance properly - and AI lab valuations and commitments, which should be viewed cautiously. But everything gets grouped into one with the boogyman of "leverage" or "debt". Yes, valuations can compress or correct from macro, potential regulatory uncertainty, or potential capex reductions. But for the companies physically powering the AI buildout, it looks more like the Great AI Deleveraging of 2026... Than anything like fundamental demand destruction. As more earnings come out and free cash flow accumulates over time. I'm confident in a recovery, especially in bottlenecks, and for markets to eventually discern durability + growth over frothy valuations tied to AI.

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Axon 3Q26 Business Update

Axon cut full-year guidance after delayed federal Dedrone contracts slowed 3Q revenue growth to 28%, while software and services grew 43%.

AXON $31B
Speedwell Memos 4 clicks

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