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Sunday, November 8, 2026

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@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Counterpoint on $MRVL / $LITE acqusition: - "Every buyer that competes with Marvell will want a second, independent laser source". They identify $SIVE / Scintil Photonics as new CW / ELS capacity, with names like $CRDO as potential partners of Sivers. - "With Lumentum sold out for years, the overflow goes to whoever has merchant capacity" Already said this before, but we'll likely see some incentive to diversify laser sourcing. Sivers was cited here, and comes online with 100M lasers / external foundry capacity (2:1 external/internal target). To demonstrate the sheer scale on that, $AAOI exit 2026 laser capacity target was roughly ~24M/year (but different blend). - "Module makers move upstream" was also another second order effect. $JBL as one example is now heavily competing with the combined Lumentum + Marvell.... There's other players like $SMTC that are explicitly doing M&A for expanding laser capacity. I don't think the overall AI valuation crash is representative of individual company strength in the optical sector. There's very compelling opportunities in the laser bottleneck in the upcoming year that I believe markets are mispricing.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Just to show a point... AI names have crashed so much to the point $POET as a business is now considered close to worthless. It's now $829.7M MC vs. ~$788M net cash. And below its $847.5M book value. Considering institutions were funding it $400m at $21, with $26.25 exercisable warrants few months ago and it's back to ~$4.8. Poet would need to rally +337.5% just to return back to the original financing price. "FOGO" (Fear of Getting Obliterated) have hit extreme levels if "growth" companies are priced near liquidation values.

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Post Q3 EVC Update

EVC's Q3 update cites $30 million for a single station, a broadcast-business sale and stronger positioning for 2027.

EVC $832M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 23 clicks

Entravision Q3 Update

Entravision’s Q3 ad-tech revenue reached $177.2 million, up 133% year over year, while total revenue rose 88% to $226.3 million and diluted…

EVC $832M
The Value Road 4 clicks

Axon 3Q26 Business Update

Axon cut full-year guidance after delayed federal Dedrone contracts slowed 3Q revenue growth to 28%, while software and services grew 43%.

AXON $31B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks
TNLIF · long

Trainline PLC

Trainline’s buyback and high free-cash-flow yield support a long thesis.

TNLIF $903M
Value Investors Club 1 click

GREAT DEC-TECTIVE WORK

Diversified Energy reported $255.6 million of “true” nine-month free cash flow, while its $1.8 billion Birch acquisition would shift…

DEC $900M
The Oak Bloke 3 clicks

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