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Sunday, November 8, 2026

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@aleabitoreddit 1 click

Serenity on X

It think it's stupid that "AI Bubble" gets used over and over. In infra names you have: - 1-3x fwd P/E memory companies from Samsung to $ESMT. With HBM players now having hyperscaler multi-year price floor LTAs. - Optical companies like $POET traded -$97M under net cash. Valuing the operating business very negatively, not even at $0. - While AI companies with larger premiums continue to record demand over the next 3-5 years. Such as the new $20B LTAs signed w/ $COHR to $5B LTAs signed w/ $LITE. Can someone in the media honestly see negative EV high-beta optical companies, where 2 years of burnrate would still value the company below $0. or single digit memory companies with contracted demand + price floors years out and say that's a bubble? Many of these names are extremely profitable today... But obviously there's other elements inside the theme, such as: - Certain startups like Instinct that look like a private valuation bubble. - Leveraged Neoclouds that didn't finance properly - and AI lab valuations and commitments, which should be viewed cautiously. But everything gets grouped into one with the boogyman of "leverage" or "debt". Yes, valuations can compress or correct from macro, potential regulatory uncertainty, or potential capex reductions. But for the companies physically powering the AI buildout, it looks more like the Great AI Deleveraging of 2026... Than anything like fundamental demand destruction. As more earnings come out and free cash flow accumulates over time. I'm confident in a recovery, especially in bottlenecks, and for markets to eventually discern durability + growth over frothy valuations tied to AI.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

The two things I'm excited about are Gen G vs. T1... and new NASA's $10 Billion contract to begin settling on the moon. NASA selected: - $SPCX (SpaceX) - Blue Origin - $FLY (Firefly) - $LUNR (Lunar) - $LMT (Lockheed Martin Space) - $NOC (Northrop Grumman Space) - $VOYG (Voyager) - iSpace US to compete for future lunar delivery missions - $1.3B in launch and orbital transportation orders awarded to Arrow Science, Blue Origin, and Impulse Space. - $94 million for Blue Origin to deliver NASA's nuclear powered PROMISE rover - Existing CLPS 1 contract ceiling raised from $2.6B to $4.2B. - NASA also announced awards to Honeybee Robotics, a Blue Origin company, $RDW for a lunar power and communications tower

Investor Letters

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Post Q3 EVC Update

EVC's Q3 update cites $30 million for a single station, a broadcast-business sale and stronger positioning for 2027.

EVC $832M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 23 clicks

Entravision Q3 Update

Entravision’s Q3 ad-tech revenue reached $177.2 million, up 133% year over year, while total revenue rose 88% to $226.3 million and diluted…

EVC $832M
The Value Road 4 clicks

GREAT DEC-TECTIVE WORK

Diversified Energy reported $255.6 million of “true” nine-month free cash flow, while its $1.8 billion Birch acquisition would shift…

DEC $900M
The Oak Bloke 3 clicks
ABG · long

Asbury Automotive Group INC

Asbury Automotive Group's changed setup and underperformance versus other public dealers form the basis for a renewed long thesis.

ABG $3.6B
Value Investors Club

Seer

Seer trades at $2.04 against $3.90 per share of net cash as activists press a board that rejected five buyout proposals and won reelection.

SEER $96M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 4 clicks

Hidden in Plane Sight

An aerospace company’s profitable core is obscured by a long-running FAA development program; approval, abandonment, or shrinking losses…

ASLE $233M
The Mikro Kap 3 clicks

Stranded Indium-Phosphide

Aeva’s high-power InP SOA design could supply NPO/CPO optical modules at roughly 17% gross margins, versus 51% for eight discrete DFB…

AEVA $625M
Irrational Analysis

TSOH Weekly Roundup (07/24/2026)

TSOH Weekly Roundup covers the Paramount-Warner court block, Xbox Game Pass’s subscriber shortfall and pricing reset, and Red Bull’s 28%…

SKYD $9.4B
TSOH Investment Research

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