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Sunday, November 8, 2026

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@ParadisLabs 1 click

Paradis on X

A lot of green in AI land today from $NBIS +11.2% to $CRDO +10.8%. Over the past few weeks, financing has been the main pressure point but it seems like we've made some solid progress this week. - $META raised $97.5B, with $60B of that coming through an ATM starting in January. - $SPCX signed a $40B deal for GPU equipment. - $AVGO set up a $63B SPV to fund custom chips for Anthropic, who also eased some fears with their S-1. Feels like the rapid de-grossing over the last few weeks has mostly run its course, however according to JPM, volumes still remain light. Interestingly, GS say that there's evidence today of "increased offense being played across the AI complex". While this is still minimal, it's a notable uptick vs. the past few weeks where risk was near zero. I wonder whether the market decides to pay attention to the upcoming hurdles, or whether it keeps riding the wall of worry higher. I personally still land on some short-term choppiness when you consider how bruised investors have gotten since July + hurdles in the next few days (hyperscaler earnings, FOMC, midterms).
@ACapitalLP 1 click

A Capital on X

$FLEX looks interesting into the Axiom spin in Q1 2027. I think everyone can agree RemainCo is worth somewhere in the $40s, so the only real disagreement is what value to assign Axiom. You’re getting a cloud and power infrastructure business growing at gangbuster rates (80%+ FY28 revenue growth) that just raised $2bn of convertible preferred from General Catalyst at a $37.5bn EV… Meanwhile, at ~$77, the market is implying Axiom is worth ~$33/share. Some SOTP estimates have it north of $100. Obviously there are legitimate concerns around capex, working capital and FCF conversion, but that’s a pretty enormous disconnect. November 10 Investor Day should be interesting…
@convequity 2 clicks

Convequity on X

The usual explanation for CoreWeave’s credit pressure is that its loans outlast its customer contracts. The filings say otherwise. All of $CRWV’s debt is due before its current contracts end, though only just: $14.6B of notes falls due in 2031-32, as the last contract cash comes in. That distinction matters. For a GPU cloud, debt that outlives its contracts is the dangerous kind. When a contract ends the chips are old, and there is no contract left to borrow against. CoreWeave’s real problem is speed. Each new build needs fresh capital before the last one has paid for itself, and almost all of the debt sits with the parent company. $IREN has the opposite shape. Its Microsoft project loan is matched to the contract. The risk is $6.3B of convertible bonds due 2031-33, mostly after its contracted cash has ended. If IREN’s stock is high by then, bondholders will likely swap the bonds for shares. If it’s low, IREN has to repay them in cash. Which leads to an odd conclusion: slower AI demand growth could help both. Fewer new commitments would give finished projects time to earn back their cost.

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Axon 3Q26 Business Update

Axon cut full-year guidance after delayed federal Dedrone contracts slowed 3Q revenue growth to 28%, while software and services grew 43%.

AXON $31B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

Trading Post November 5, 2026

MercadoLibre’s logistics expansion cut margins by 60 basis points, while Mercado Pago grew credit 62% with 7% NPLs.

MELI $77B
Cassandra Unchained 2 clicks

Thursday Tailwinds #13: Nov 5, 2026

Florida marinas are 92% full as boat counts rise and permits constrain new supply, creating pricing power for existing operators such as…

SUI $14B
Trade Ideas Flow 6 clicks

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