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Saturday, November 7, 2026

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@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

If someone asked me 10 years ago what I'd be doing in the future, Answering questions on Jensen + Spys banging each other and implications on the AI trade would not be in mind My response to that question is: how am i supposed to know? On AI trade implications: $NVDA probably wanted to sell more chips anyway (to China) for revenue and it's extremely unlikely this person had any effect on trade policies. The relationship might not even be true... anyway I'll wait until more news comes out.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

A $TSM Spokesperson has reportedly denied exploring 3D DRAM per Tom's Hardware. After a report yesterday from The Information stated TSMC's production plans were from $NVDA's request. The implications would have put TSMC in competition with $MU, SK Hynix, and Samsung and set off narratives about TSm disrupting the biggest memory makers. There's something frustrating with there's market moving headlines both ways. It just creates more confusion and volatility... Especially if something (like $NVDA CEO honeypot allegations) or the TSM report yesterday turns out untrue.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

A $TSM Spokesperson has reportedly denied exploring 3D DRAM per Tom's Hardware. After a report yesterday from The Information stated TSMC's production plans were from $NVDA's request. The implications would have put TSMC in competition with $MU, SK Hynix, and Samsung and set off narratives about TSm disrupting the biggest memory makers. There's something frustrating with there's market moving headlines both ways. It just creates more confusion and volatility... Especially if something (like $NVDA CEO honeypot allegations) or the TSM report yesterday turns out untrue.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

So two things: 1. I'm now fundamentally positive on $IREN post Mirantis acquisition and after their recent earnings. Their operating outlook and ability to finance has looked more compelling. 2. That doesn't always translate to appreciating share price and ROI to shareholders. I have caution regarding their existing $6B ATM, which now has $2.37B left (so they have been going through it). As well as CEO executive compensation, which I'd argue would be more beneficial if this were done through appreciating share prices rather than dilution. Obviously optics on their NBA Warriors deals are very bad while they're unprofitable... but I'd treat this as noise relative to the scale of the ATM overhang + executive comp. So a lot of weighing different float + market dynamics vs. operational business, but I'd argue this is something that still can be addressed.
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Even with current narratives like biotech eg. $TWST, there's 100%+ Y/Y growth from their AI testing segment with Anthropic. But if you look at company overall revenue projections, they're only calling for double revenue growth by 2031 (implying 15% annual growth). I'm sure they can beat, but this seems relatively slow compared to AI supply chains growing hundreds to 1000% Y/Y and seeing record levels of net income growth Q/Q. Not all bottlenecks have the same economic impact the way hyperscaler capex in AI supply chains does.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$EMBC: Embecta (EMBC), spun out of Becton Dickinson in 2022, makes the pen needles and syringes people with diabetes use to inject insulin. Its U.S. pen needle business is shrinking from lost share and price cuts, and more patients are moving from daily insulin shots to weekly GLP-1s. To offset that, it is selling its needles inside the boxes of generic GLP-1 drugs, already launched in India, Canada and Brazil and targeted at $100M+ in revenue by 2033. It is also launching cheaper needles and syringes for new markets and buying into other drug-delivery products beyond insulin. Quick Pitch $350m Market Cap/$1.62B Enterprise Value. Less than 3x P/E. Warren Buffett Owners Earnings of $122m ex SBC. Cut dividend switched to $100m Buyback authorization that's being used. CEO/CFO/Director/CLO all bought August 12th
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$GTN ~$4.90. Joel Greenblatt always wanted to do an LBO, his way of doing one was finding very leveraged stocks. This is the ultimate public LBO. Gray owns local TV stations: the CBS/NBC/ABC/Fox channel in 117 US markets (~37% of homes), #1 rated in 78 of them. It gets paid three ways: local ads, fees cable and streaming companies pay to carry its channels, and a flood of political ads every other year. It is the most sensitive to political out of any broadcaster. Miller Value Partners’ latest 13F reported 7.24 million shares as of June 30, 2026, worth about $28.8 million at quarter end; the firm had increased the position by roughly 35% from the prior quarter. In recent Q they just pushed debt maturity to 2030 from 2028 ~$500M of equity on ~$6.3B of net debt + preferred. ~6.8x 2-yr avg EBITDA. Consensus FCF: $388M ‘26, $115M ‘27, $450M ‘28, or ~50% a year on average vs the market cap. The record 2026 political year ($630-640M) is going to debt: ~$1B of 10.5% notes refinanced or repurchased, another $175-200M paid down in Q4. Free options: FCC loosening ownership caps (more duopolies, M&A) and a future spectrum sale. $SPCX sensible buyer of part portfolio. Risks: core ads down mid-single digits ex-acquisitions, cord-cutting, and a former Gray VP sees retrans under “severe pressure” after 2028 (Alphasense). At 5.7x leverage the equity is a stub, so it cuts both ways. Miller Value Partners and Bill Miller Thesis: The GTN thesis is that the market was pricing Gray Television as a highly leveraged broadcaster in decline, while underestimating the cash-generating strength and value of its local stations and other assets. Miller Value Partners argued that: Gray’s local stations were often market leaders, giving the company a strong audience and an advantage in political advertising. Political ads, retransmission contract renewals, and growth in digital advertising could lift cash flow. The firm also saw potential in the Assembly production studio and, later, ATSC 3.0. That cash flow could pay down debt; if the market’s pessimism eased, the equity could be worth multiples of its then-current price. They acknowledged the debt and advertising-cycle risks. Their counterpoint was that near-term maturities were limited and that expected cash generation could support deleveraging. The particular forecasts changed over time: the 2023 letter estimated more than $2.5 billion of free cash flow over five years; the 2025 update estimated $2 billion-plus over five to six years. Those were the firm’s projections at the time, not realized results.

Investor Letters

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Entravision Q3 Update

Entravision’s Q3 ad-tech revenue reached $177.2 million, up 133% year over year, while total revenue rose 88% to $226.3 million and diluted…

EVC $832M
The Value Road 4 clicks

Axon 3Q26 Business Update

Axon cut full-year guidance after delayed federal Dedrone contracts slowed 3Q revenue growth to 28%, while software and services grew 43%.

AXON $31B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

AMD Q3 FY26, Annotated

AMD's Q3 revenue rose 45% to $13.4 billion as data center reached $8.5 billion, 64% of sales, driven by EPYC and Instinct ramps.

AMD $660B
Chipstrat 2 clicks

GREAT DEC-TECTIVE WORK

Diversified Energy reported $255.6 million of “true” nine-month free cash flow, while its $1.8 billion Birch acquisition would shift…

DEC $900M
The Oak Bloke 2 clicks
SHLS · long

Shoals Technologies Group Inc

Shoals Technologies’ utility-scale solar cabling business is reaccelerating as gross margins bottom.

SHLS $1.5B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Intel Panther Lake Teardown

Intel’s Panther Lake puts 18A PowerVia backside power and RibbonFET GAA transistors into commercial silicon, with logic density similar to…

INTC $287B
SemiAnalysis

Updates

FGPR remains on track, PRTH's management buyout is set at $8.05, and microcap RAVE is described as cheap.

PRTH $649M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 9 clicks

Reddit: DCF Valuation

Reddit’s DCF values shares at $225, driven by international ARPU expansion from $2.2 to $8.3 by 2035 and 38% operating margins.

RDDT $18B
Hated Moats 5 clicks

The Agents Revolt

Meta’s Muse reached 2.8 million downloads in two weeks, using AI agents to automate insurance shopping and erode customer inertia that…

META $1.6T
Net Interest 3 clicks

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