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Saturday, November 7, 2026

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@Mr_Neutral_Man

Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs” on X

As with all over supply, time tends to take care of the problem. Im old enough to remember when SFH were generally thought if being in over supply forever Getting through this has taken wayyy longer than most folks imagined I’m waiting for $CPT to report. I kind of knew $MAA was gonna have tough/bad new/renewal mix I think it’s also part of their own fault where they push renewals too much
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

We've finally made it to November... holy crap October was brutal. Per Morgan Stanley data, the recent hedge fund de-grossing was the highest in the past 10 years. Exceeding the: - 2016 Chinese stock market crash - 2018 Volmageddon - March 2020 COVID crash - 2021 Archegos collapse / Evergrande crisis - 2022 bear market Goldman's prime brokerage desk reported on the 26th that it had also seen ~$20B of selling over 2 weeks vs. $23 billion during July's entire unwind. From $HOOD short interest data, from Sept -> Oct short float also increased from: $AAOI: 12.5% -> 19.84%+ $AEVA: 11% -> 25.64%+ $CBRS: 12.25% -> 20.12%+ $AEHR: 14.33% -> 17.93%+ $TSEM: 2.15% -> 4.73%+ $CIFR: 19.94% -> 25.39%+ $LWLG: 15.24% ->19.12%+ $OKLO: 17.72% ->22.93%+ $CRWV: 17.91% ->26.58%+ Substantial deleveraging coinciding with surging short interest, kinda looks like a July setup after Midterms? The recent rotation also kinda pushed names like $CRWD and cybersecurity to bubble valuations into hundreds of fwd P/E... Earnings on many AI capex + bottlenecks (not all like $INTC) looked strong: eg. $AXTI guided annualized Q4 = 23.7x P/E now, not including potential InP substrate hikes + capacity expansion that can compress it to single digits. - $SKHY (~$59B operating profit) casually making more than trillion dollar companies like Amazon ($28.1B operating profit), backed with 5Y LTAs. - No signs of $MSFT / $AMZN materially cutting capex, while $SPCX secures $40B more for GPU procurement. Slightly painful, but I think the AI capex trade (specifically photonics/memory) is a generational opportunity, with extreme volatility in between.
@ACapitalLP 2 clicks

A Capital on X

The market seems to be valuing $GRND like a traditional swipe app with a shrinking payer base ($MTCH), rather than a utility for a community with no real substitute. The engagement numbers are absurd. Data shows Grindr users spending 6h 27m/month on the app vs. 2h 10m for Hinge and 1h 30m for Tinder (~3x and ~4.3x, respectively). Add $26.50 ARPPU, 16% payer growth, and ~42% EBITDA margins. Not exactly the economics of a dying dating app…

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Axon 3Q26 Business Update

Axon cut full-year guidance after delayed federal Dedrone contracts slowed 3Q revenue growth to 28%, while software and services grew 43%.

AXON $31B
Speedwell Memos 2 clicks
AAP · long

Advance Auto Parts INC

Advance Auto Parts, AAP, is presented as a long idea following prior write-ups at $48.81 per share in January 2025.

AAP $2.9B
Value Investors Club 1 click

Trading Post November 5, 2026

MercadoLibre’s logistics expansion cut margins by 60 basis points, while Mercado Pago grew credit 62% with 7% NPLs.

MELI $77B
Cassandra Unchained 2 clicks

Problems at Twist Bioscience (TWST)

Twist Bioscience’s $200 rebound followed an Anthropic-linked short squeeze, yet its DNA and protein services face broad competition while…

TWST $8B
Hunterbrook 4 clicks

VSH Earnings Review

Vishay reported record Q3 revenue of $979 million, up 24%, and guided Q4 to about $990 million as rising backlog and margins contrast with…

VSH $3.6B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

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