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Thursday, November 5, 2026

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@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

Oh look… more memory durability evidence for $MU and co. Following the news of $GOOGL, other CSPs such as Alibaba, Tencent, Bytedance, and are now negotiating memory LTAs with $SKHY and Samsung. Some customers are reportedly pushing for 10 year contracts as well, into 2035. “As U.S. companies move to secure memory supplies first, Chinese tech giants are joining the race.” Source: Maeil News Don't you think it's a bit strange for your hyperscalers (especially Chinese big tech) to seek LTAs 10 years out… If there's claims of CXMT + YMTC DRAM/NAND overflooding in 2028-2029?
@convequity 1 click

Convequity on X

$SPCX negotiated a 90-day right to walk away from Anthropic. We infer that Musk expects Grok to catch up with Claude, and that SpaceX would then cancel and use the Anthropic compute for Grok rather than keep serving Claude. Either party holds that right. Anthropic's S-1 says each agreement can be canceled by either party on 90 days' written notice after a period when cancellation is not allowed. Those periods end in January 2027 and March 2027, depending on the agreement. Anthropic's S-1 says Anthropic agreed to spend up to $120.5 billion into 2029 with SPCX, for compute powered by $NVDA GPUs. SpaceX's S-1 says either party can terminate on 90 days' notice after an initial three-month period. SpaceX told the SEC it negotiated the clause so the capacity could go to other customers or to SpaceX's own compute initiatives. The Apollo finance lease does not involve Anthropic. SpaceX has a binding commitment to enter a separate lease of about $40 billion for Nvidia Rubin GPUs. The 8-K and the press release do not name Anthropic.
@convequity 2 clicks

Convequity on X

Investors are selling $BESI, in our view, because customers increasingly prefer or consider shorter HBM stacks, since HBM is expensive. Our industry information points to customers requesting stacks of four or six memory dies. Fewer layers mean fewer connections and, where hybrid bonding is used, fewer bonding steps per stack, and shorter stacks fit package-height limits more easily with conventional solder. That could delay equipment adoption and weaken the nearer-term HBM opportunity for $BESI, which supplies hybrid-bonding equipment. Logic folding is the tailwind. It places parts of a circuit above one another on vertically connected layers joined through hybrid bonding, so signals travel shorter distances and the chip runs faster on less energy. Those benefits hold even when an inference system needs less HBM, and the layers still need aligning and connecting with exceptional precision. In our view, that can create more hybrid-bonding demand than this delay takes away. Wider folding also pushes inspection and measurement into more logic-chip applications. We expect that to lift spending faster than chip volumes for $ONTO and $CAMT, and for $NVMI, whose materials and chemistry checks address problems that get harder as circuits move into vertically connected layers. Longer term, folding could make chips on established processes more capable for $UMC. That is our prospective thesis, not an announced UMC program. Deeper dive available at Convequity.

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Trading Post November 5, 2026

MercadoLibre’s logistics expansion cut margins by 60 basis points, while Mercado Pago grew credit 62% with 7% NPLs.

MELI $77B
Cassandra Unchained 2 clicks

Intel: The CPU Comeback, Discounted

Intel's Q3 2026 results were hit by memory costs and an Israel shutdown, but enterprise AI inference could lift CPU demand as server…

INTC $287B
Monte Independent Investment Research 2 clicks

Problems at Twist Bioscience (TWST)

Twist Bioscience’s $200 rebound followed an Anthropic-linked short squeeze, yet its DNA and protein services face broad competition while…

TWST $8B
Hunterbrook 4 clicks

VSH Earnings Review

Vishay reported record Q3 revenue of $979 million, up 24%, and guided Q4 to about $990 million as rising backlog and margins contrast with…

VSH $3.6B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

Thursday Tailwinds #13: Nov 5, 2026

Florida marinas are 92% full as boat counts rise and permits constrain new supply, creating pricing power for existing operators such as…

SUI $14B
Trade Ideas Flow 6 clicks

eToro: Expanding Beyond Crypto

EToro trades at 2.89x EV/FCF with $304 million in trailing free cash flow, expanding from crypto into equities, commodities, currencies and…

ETOR $1.9B
Max Arnoldi 5 clicks
SILC · long

Silicom LTD

Silicom (SILC) is pitched as inexpensive on its existing hardware business, with upside framed as a cheap call option.

SILC $183M
Value Investors Club 4 clicks

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