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Thursday, November 5, 2026

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@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

$MFC the spotlight has shifted off private credit but the issues have not gone away. MFC is in my opinion one of the more overlooked violators stuffing their life insurance investments with outsized exposure to private credit and cre. Just look under the hood of their earnings tonight. "𝐖𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐌𝐚𝐧𝐮𝐥𝐢𝐟𝐞 𝐥𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐫 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐚𝐥𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐭 𝐫𝐞𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐧 𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐮𝐦𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬? Alternative long-duration assets missed expected returns by $153 million post-tax, marking six straight negative quarters and $1.35 billion of cumulative shortfalls by our math. Keeping unchanged return assumptions turns recurring investment shortfalls into excluded below-the-line charges every quarter."
@aleabitoreddit 2 clicks

Serenity on X

Yes $AAOI had a massive InP substrate purchase order earlier, and I don’t believe all of that is going toward transceiver lasers that Rosenblatt modeled. I believe have the similar 60%+ GM UHP laser capabilities that $COHR $20B LTAs and $LITE $5B LTAs are primarily for. While having a MC of <$5B and we’ll see some announcements there later. As for $SIVE, it’s mainly about qualifications given they have the capacity now with foundries + 100m laser expansion plan. $MRVL + $LITE gives it an extremely clear window of opportunity as well, alongside current laser bottlenecks for qualifying players like $CRDO, Innolight, Cambridge, and hyperscalers. We’ll see what new partners they announce in earnings this month. Given both their tiny $600m, ~$4.9B MCs, I would not be surprised if their 2028 revenue exceeded their valuations.
@aleabitoreddit 1 click

Serenity on X

$COHR earnings transcript TLDR: Q: On $LITE + $MRVL merger. A. Customers will prefer an independent optical supplier without competitive conflicts (opportunity for other merchant laser suppliers) Q: Loop Capital asked about 2028 laser industry oversupply. A: No oversupply risk by 2028. Coherent’s entire current internal InP production is consumed by its own products while its expanding capacity. Q: On Chinese laser competition for CPO UHP lasers A: “We really only have one competitor” (hinting at $LITE). Q: On financing concerns for capacity expansion during this market scare A: Customer LTAs have prepayments, which are used for product capacity orders 2027 completely sold out, LTAs extend to 2030, customers placing orders into 2028. Q: On laser technology for CPO scale up from Bernstein, whether it’s VCSELs or CW lasers. A: CW for CPO scale out and scale up for 2026-2027. 2029-2030 sees scale in and chip to chip using micro-VCSELs, and 2028 opportunities for NPO scale up. So technology of choice is CW for CPO. - Coherent is seeing pricing power and raising margin targets, supporting view optical players get additional leverage for margin expansion - Massive new $20B 5Y LTA, anchored by UHP CW lasers, with other optical products mixed in - demand comes from growth in DC and conversion of copper interconnects to optics. The latter is bandwidth requirements, independent of DC growth. slower compute growth can coexist with sharply rising optical content per system TLDR: - nothing quite showing optical demand like $20B in LTAs anchored by high power lasers from 1 customer alone (not your frontier labs type commitments) - no industry wide laser oversupply risk by 2028 for InP lasers/EML - financing funded by revenue from LTAs and purchase orders. - doesn’t see Chinese competition for high end lasers, commentary casts doubts over China capability + capacity expansion claims - CW lasers weapon of choice for CPO, blended margins going up for optical players - optics more isolated in the event of a DC slowdown Quite wild to see fundamentals of optical players improve so much, while overall valuations crash.

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Trading Post November 5, 2026

MercadoLibre’s logistics expansion cut margins by 60 basis points, while Mercado Pago grew credit 62% with 7% NPLs.

MELI $77B
Cassandra Unchained 2 clicks

Intel: The CPU Comeback, Discounted

Intel's Q3 2026 results were hit by memory costs and an Israel shutdown, but enterprise AI inference could lift CPU demand as server…

INTC $287B
Monte Independent Investment Research 2 clicks

Problems at Twist Bioscience (TWST)

Twist Bioscience’s $200 rebound followed an Anthropic-linked short squeeze, yet its DNA and protein services face broad competition while…

TWST $8B
Hunterbrook 4 clicks

VSH Earnings Review

Vishay reported record Q3 revenue of $979 million, up 24%, and guided Q4 to about $990 million as rising backlog and margins contrast with…

VSH $3.6B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

Thursday Tailwinds #13: Nov 5, 2026

Florida marinas are 92% full as boat counts rise and permits constrain new supply, creating pricing power for existing operators such as…

SUI $14B
Trade Ideas Flow 6 clicks

eToro: Expanding Beyond Crypto

EToro trades at 2.89x EV/FCF with $304 million in trailing free cash flow, expanding from crypto into equities, commodities, currencies and…

ETOR $1.9B
Max Arnoldi 5 clicks
SILC · long

Silicom LTD

Silicom (SILC) is pitched as inexpensive on its existing hardware business, with upside framed as a cheap call option.

SILC $183M
Value Investors Club 4 clicks

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