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Thursday, November 5, 2026

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AppLovin 3Q26 Business Update: No Notes

AppLovin’s Q3 revenue rose 55% year over year as AXON model gains expanded margins, while ad take-rate compression remains the key competitive risk.

APP $118B
Speedwell Research 3 clicks

From X

@ActAccordingly 9 clicks

PAA Research on X

The way we were... I've been wondering why there was such a rush to get the $ANT S-1 filed amidst a brutal sell-off in AI related names. Then I read the filing and it's painfully clear. $ANT has scaled at a mind-boggling clip up until this point. Yes the company did generate operating cash flow and profits in 2Q26, but that no longer is representative of the business model going forward. With $500B+ of compute cost commitments with $MSFT $GOOG $AMZN and $SPCX and a $161B equipment lease with $AMD, the entire cost structure of this business is now changing under the "Anthropic Direct" initiative. They're showing you that delivering inference was a structurally high margin business in 2Q26 (50%+ margin). Will it be going forward? Well they're sitting on something that looks like $85-100B in compute commitments ANNUALLY. As a point of reference they spent $5.5B in 2Q26 on compute. Even if they get towards $80B of ARR by year end (which could be optimistic), it's a big hurdle to get to profitability in 2027 unless ARR doubles (or more). There is a placeholder for October 2026 ARR in the S-1. I cannot think of another single sentence in a SEC filing that will have more of an impact on the fate of capital markets than that one. My guess is everyone in the VC and tech community will up their Claude spend this month for that very reason.
@ActAccordingly 5 clicks

PAA Research on X

The way we were... I've been wondering why there was such a rush to get the $ANT S-1 filed amidst a brutal sell-off in AI related names. Then I read the filing and it's painfully clear. $ANT has scaled at a mind-boggling clip up until this point. Yes the company did generate operating cash flow and profits in 2Q26, but that not longer is representative of the business model going forward. With $500B+ of compute cost commitments with $MSFT $GOOG $AMZN and $SPCX and a $161B equipment lease with $AMD, the entire cost structure of this business is now changing under the "Anthropic Direct" initiative. They're showing you that delivering inference was a structurally high margin business in 2Q26 (50%+ margin). Will it be going forward? Well they're sitting on something that looks like $85-100B in compute commitments ANNUALLY. As a point of reference they spent $5.5B in 2Q26 on compute. Even if they get towards $80B of ARR by year end (which could be optimistic), it's a big hurdle to get to profitability in 2027 unless ARR doubles (or more). There is a placeholder for October 2026 ARR in the S-1. I cannot think of another single sentence in a SEC filing that will have more of an impact on the fate of capital markets than that one. My guess is everyone in the VC and tech community will up their Claude spend this month for that very reason.

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Trading Post November 5, 2026

MercadoLibre’s logistics expansion cut margins by 60 basis points, while Mercado Pago grew credit 62% with 7% NPLs.

MELI $77B
Cassandra Unchained 2 clicks

Intel: The CPU Comeback, Discounted

Intel's Q3 2026 results were hit by memory costs and an Israel shutdown, but enterprise AI inference could lift CPU demand as server…

INTC $287B
Monte Independent Investment Research 2 clicks

Problems at Twist Bioscience (TWST)

Twist Bioscience’s $200 rebound followed an Anthropic-linked short squeeze, yet its DNA and protein services face broad competition while…

TWST $8B
Hunterbrook 4 clicks

VSH Earnings Review

Vishay reported record Q3 revenue of $979 million, up 24%, and guided Q4 to about $990 million as rising backlog and margins contrast with…

VSH $3.6B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

Thursday Tailwinds #13: Nov 5, 2026

Florida marinas are 92% full as boat counts rise and permits constrain new supply, creating pricing power for existing operators such as…

SUI $14B
Trade Ideas Flow 6 clicks
CHWY · long

Chewy INC

Chewy (CHWY) is presented as a long opportunity after a prior 2022 short thesis played out.

CHWY $9.2B
Value Investors Club 5 clicks

New Ideas From The Road

Aurelion Research increased healthcare exposure and sees opportunities in banking and defense, alongside research on Alcoa, Nike, ONON and…

AA $10BNKE $60B
Aurelion Research 4 clicks

Site Centers (NYSE:SITC)

Site Centers' $3 per-share return-of-capital distribution and December delisting leave a discounted liquidation stub, with two properties…

CURB $3.6B
Real Assets, Real Value 5 clicks

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