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Thursday, November 5, 2026

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$NVDA is still the cheapest way to produce AI tokens when 150 or more users share one batch. When one user wants the fastest possible answer, the economics change. Our Cerebras note puts the rule in two parts. 1. NVIDIA is the cheapest token factory when 150+ concurrent users share one batch and each user gets a moderate speed. 2. To maximise speed for a single user, the batch has to shrink, so the system's total output falls. That loses money per token unless the faster answers are sold at a higher price. Cerebras ($CRBS) sits at the other end. Its wafer-scale chip gives fast answers to a single user and reaches its best efficiency at 4 users. Like a taxi, it is quick and direct, but it has fewer seats to spread the cost across. The two also differ in how much room each has left to improve. SRAM-based designs like Cerebras have already captured most of their performance upside. GPU fleets often run at low compute utilization today, and that gap is room for future gains and economies of scale, not a permanent cost. So fast inference only pays if customers will pay more for speed. Our view is that a sizeable portion of the market will pay a premium for speed.

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