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Thursday, November 5, 2026

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AppLovin 3Q26 Business Update: No Notes

AppLovin’s Q3 revenue rose 55% year over year as AXON model gains expanded margins, while ad take-rate compression remains the key competitive risk.

APP $118B
Speedwell Research 3 clicks

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Fluence Energy’s $FLNC CEO, CFO, and chief customer success officer just left on October 30, effective immediately, six weeks after its fourth guidance cut in 19 months! The press release says CEO Julian Nebreda, CFO Ahmed Pasha, and John Zahurancik “stepped down.” But the 8-K says all three will be eligible for benefits under $FLNC’s executive severance plan, which only pays out on an involuntary termination or a “good reason” resignation. So I read the exits as the board pushing all three out. The interim CEO and CFO come from $FLNC’s two co-founders and major shareholders, Siemens $SIEGY and $AES: → Interim CEO Axel Meier: Retired in June as CFO of Siemens’ Smart Infrastructure division and has been a $FLNC director since January 2020, through all four guidance cuts. → Interim CFO Ricardo Roizen: A former CFO of AES Andes, a Chile-based AES affiliate, seconded for up to 90 days unless extended, with AES Andes still paying his salary. With Bernerd Da Santos, AES COO from 2017 to 2023, running operations since September 15, Siemens and AES veterans now hold $FLNC’s CEO, CFO, and COO seats. Nebreda, Pasha, and Zahurancik all came from AES as well, so the board hasn’t turned to outsiders for the top three seats, at least until its searches for a permanent CEO and CFO finish. AES also buys $FLNC’s systems and negotiates change orders and settlements with $FLNC, so the interim CFO is now on a customer’s payroll. $FLNC also delayed its FY2027 guidance. Pasha said on September 16 that $FLNC planned to provide “a detailed business plan and a financial update for fiscal year 2027” when it reported FY2026 results. The November 2 release now says FY2027 guidance “is expected to be provided at a later date.” So the FY2026 results on November 23 will show how Q4 went, but not how much of the ~$2.9B of backlog scheduled for FY2027 $FLNC expects to deliver. The release says $FLNC is prioritizing profitable growth “through disciplined pricing and a streamlined cost structure,” which I read as fewer low-margin orders and cost cuts. At ~$5.40/share, $FLNC trades between the $3.93 bear case and the $7.67 low end of the base case in my September 21 update. Would you say replacing Nebreda and Pasha was overdue? But with an interim CEO, a CFO on loan from AES, and no FY2027 guide, I’d rather see three numbers before giving the new team any credit: 1) Revenue: Q4 vs. the ~$810M the September guide implied. 2) Houston: Output at the contract manufacturing plant behind most of the September 16 cut, vs. the 11 units/day it was supposed to run. 3) Cash: The balance as of September 30, vs. $365M as of June 30.

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Trading Post November 5, 2026

MercadoLibre’s logistics expansion cut margins by 60 basis points, while Mercado Pago grew credit 62% with 7% NPLs.

MELI $77B
Cassandra Unchained 2 clicks

Intel: The CPU Comeback, Discounted

Intel's Q3 2026 results were hit by memory costs and an Israel shutdown, but enterprise AI inference could lift CPU demand as server…

INTC $287B
Monte Independent Investment Research 2 clicks

Problems at Twist Bioscience (TWST)

Twist Bioscience’s $200 rebound followed an Anthropic-linked short squeeze, yet its DNA and protein services face broad competition while…

TWST $8B
Hunterbrook 4 clicks

VSH Earnings Review

Vishay reported record Q3 revenue of $979 million, up 24%, and guided Q4 to about $990 million as rising backlog and margins contrast with…

VSH $3.6B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

Thursday Tailwinds #13: Nov 5, 2026

Florida marinas are 92% full as boat counts rise and permits constrain new supply, creating pricing power for existing operators such as…

SUI $14B
Trade Ideas Flow 6 clicks

eToro: Expanding Beyond Crypto

EToro trades at 2.89x EV/FCF with $304 million in trailing free cash flow, expanding from crypto into equities, commodities, currencies and…

ETOR $1.9B
Max Arnoldi 5 clicks
CHWY · long

Chewy INC

Chewy (CHWY) is presented as a long opportunity after a prior 2022 short thesis played out.

CHWY $9.2B
Value Investors Club 5 clicks

New Ideas From The Road

Aurelion Research increased healthcare exposure and sees opportunities in banking and defense, alongside research on Alcoa, Nike, ONON and…

AA $10BNKE $60B
Aurelion Research 4 clicks

Oracle: The Party Is Almost Over

Oracle’s CDS spreads exceed 320 basis points as debt approaches $135 billion and fiscal 2027 capex targets $95 billion, amid heavy reliance…

ORCL $363B
David Desjardins 1 click

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