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Thursday, November 5, 2026

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@StableBread

Fajasy on X

If ur reading a write-up and they don't include a valuation range, more often than not: 1) They're lying to themselves. E.g. only pitching bull case. "The next 10x." $GRAB a couple years ago. 2) They're lying to you, the reader. E.g. not focusing on bear case enough. "It's asymmetric"... but actual downside if couple thing flops is 60%+. $FLNC just 2-3 months ago. 3) They have no clue and prob conclude by saying "position as small speculative bet" to be in a win-win scenario to gain subs. $CCXI today... Multiple based valuation is the simple/lazy route and easier to defend, yet less practical. Absolute valuations like DCF or Penman REV forces you to think more through scenarios and the business itself, which is what's actually useful because it's more subjective.
@convequity

Convequity on X

Whether AI can run security operations on its own comes down to one question: when an automated action is wrong, who is accountable for finding out what happened and fixing it? Our note borrows two levels from self-driving cars. At L2 the driver answers for mistakes. At L4 the car drives itself, so accountability shifts to the company behind the system. 1. At L2, a third-party AI agent mostly assists. It connects to a security platform over MCP, the protocol that lets an outside AI model pull data from a vendor's platform. It suggests next steps and drafts investigations, while the human and the security platform still hold the wheel. 2. At L4 or L5, the system acts with no human in the loop in the security operations centre. It quarantines a machine, kills a process, revokes access or blocks traffic. Any of those can be wrong. When one is, the customer needs a clear accountable party that will investigate and fix the problem. In our view $PANW can be that party. It is already inside the customer's systems, keeps audit trails, and its own products take those hard-to-reverse actions. AI model labs are poorly placed for that role. On our reading, their terms usually limit what they answer for, so when an outside agent acts wrongly, the customer is left to investigate and fix the problem alone. Outside agents compete most easily for the analyst's workspace, which is L2 work. That makes $PANW better placed than model labs to sell autonomy.

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Trading Post November 5, 2026

MercadoLibre’s logistics expansion cut margins by 60 basis points, while Mercado Pago grew credit 62% with 7% NPLs.

MELI $77B
Cassandra Unchained 2 clicks

Intel: The CPU Comeback, Discounted

Intel's Q3 2026 results were hit by memory costs and an Israel shutdown, but enterprise AI inference could lift CPU demand as server…

INTC $287B
Monte Independent Investment Research 2 clicks

Problems at Twist Bioscience (TWST)

Twist Bioscience’s $200 rebound followed an Anthropic-linked short squeeze, yet its DNA and protein services face broad competition while…

TWST $8B
Hunterbrook 4 clicks

VSH Earnings Review

Vishay reported record Q3 revenue of $979 million, up 24%, and guided Q4 to about $990 million as rising backlog and margins contrast with…

VSH $3.6B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

Thursday Tailwinds #13: Nov 5, 2026

Florida marinas are 92% full as boat counts rise and permits constrain new supply, creating pricing power for existing operators such as…

SUI $14B
Trade Ideas Flow 6 clicks
CHWY · long

Chewy INC

Chewy (CHWY) is presented as a long opportunity after a prior 2022 short thesis played out.

CHWY $9.2B
Value Investors Club 5 clicks

New Ideas From The Road

Aurelion Research increased healthcare exposure and sees opportunities in banking and defense, alongside research on Alcoa, Nike, ONON and…

AA $10BNKE $60B
Aurelion Research 4 clicks

Oracle: The Party Is Almost Over

Oracle’s CDS spreads exceed 320 basis points as debt approaches $135 billion and fiscal 2027 capex targets $95 billion, amid heavy reliance…

ORCL $363B
David Desjardins 1 click

Site Centers (NYSE:SITC)

Site Centers' $3 per-share return-of-capital distribution and December delisting leave a discounted liquidation stub, with two properties…

CURB $3.6B
Real Assets, Real Value 5 clicks

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