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Thursday, November 5, 2026

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AppLovin 3Q26 Business Update: No Notes

AppLovin’s Q3 revenue rose 55% year over year as AXON model gains expanded margins, while ad take-rate compression remains the key competitive risk.

APP $118B
Speedwell Research 3 clicks

From X

@convequity

Convequity on X

We own both $ONTO and $CAMT because they sell overlapping tools to different HBM makers, and we raised Onto while holding Camtek. In our 4Q26 portfolio rebalance we increased Onto in our portfolio and held Camtek unchanged. Inspection identifies defects. Metrology measures dimensions and material properties to check that manufacturing meets specifications. Both companies sell inspection and metrology tools for HBM and advanced packaging, but their customer exposure differs. Onto is more closely tied to SK hynix's capital-spending plans. Our industry information identifies Camtek as a preferred supplier for Samsung's HBM production lines, and Samsung is investing aggressively to catch up with SK hynix in HBM. Camtek is smaller and more specialized, and we see a technical edge in selected HBM applications. Onto also sells chip-fabrication metrology and packaging lithography, which Camtek does not offer. We raised Onto because increasingly complex chip designs give customers reasons to keep investing beyond the current packaging recovery. We hold Camtek as the more focused advanced-packaging investment.
@StableBread 3 clicks

Fajasy on X

How much of the $8.4B backlog at BWX Technologies $BWXT turns into revenue by the end of 2027? $BWXT expects to recognize 55% of the $8.4B backlog, or ~$4.6B, by the end of 2027. Another $1.4B of unexercised contract options sit outside the backlog, with $900M expected to be awarded in 2030 and $500M in 2035. Three items drive $BWXT’s quarterly FCF swings: 1) Payables: Higher accounts payable added $71.4M to H1 2026’s $249.0M of operating cash flow, vs. $6.9M a year earlier. The 10-Q credits the cash flow increase mainly to the timing of vendor payments, customer billings, and project cash flows, which can reverse in later quarters. 2) Seasonality: Retainages (payments withheld on the government segment’s fixed-price incentive contracts until set conditions are met) build in Q1 and Q3, with larger payments in Q2 and Q4. 3) Equity income: $BWXT’s share of the profit from the joint ventures that manage 14 government nuclear sites, including Savannah River and Pantex, comes in as equity income, now $80M/year. It counts toward adjusted EBITDA (15.7% of Q2’s $155.5M), but $BWXT only gets the cash when the joint ventures pay dividends. That’s why I’d judge $BWXT’s FCF on the full year, not the quarter.
@convequity

Convequity on X

We think Amazon ($AMZN) blocks Meta's ($META) Muse shopping agent partly to protect its advertising business, while Shopify ($SHOP) welcomes it to earn payment fees. Amazon cites authorization and security concerns. We also see an advertising business to protect. Amazon earned $68.6 billion in advertising revenue in 2025, including payments from sellers to place their products prominently in front of shoppers. An agent that selects products without taking customers through those sponsored listings could reduce sellers' willingness to pay for them. Amazon still handles payment and delivery, which gives it bargaining power even when an agent chooses the product and places the order. Shopify welcomes Muse through Shop Pay. It can keep earning payment-processing fees when agents complete purchases through its systems, and it has no comparable advertising business to defend. We think shopping agents could favor merchants whose products stand out for quality or features over merchants whose sales depend heavily on paid placement. That could give independent brands another way to reach customers, which would benefit Shopify as more purchases pass through its merchants' stores. Agents and established platforms could still agree to share advertising revenue. We are watching whether agents improve product discovery or simply become another place where sellers pay to be recommended.

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Trading Post November 5, 2026

MercadoLibre’s logistics expansion cut margins by 60 basis points, while Mercado Pago grew credit 62% with 7% NPLs.

MELI $77B
Cassandra Unchained 2 clicks

Intel: The CPU Comeback, Discounted

Intel's Q3 2026 results were hit by memory costs and an Israel shutdown, but enterprise AI inference could lift CPU demand as server…

INTC $287B
Monte Independent Investment Research 2 clicks

Problems at Twist Bioscience (TWST)

Twist Bioscience’s $200 rebound followed an Anthropic-linked short squeeze, yet its DNA and protein services face broad competition while…

TWST $8B
Hunterbrook 4 clicks

VSH Earnings Review

Vishay reported record Q3 revenue of $979 million, up 24%, and guided Q4 to about $990 million as rising backlog and margins contrast with…

VSH $3.6B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

Thursday Tailwinds #13: Nov 5, 2026

Florida marinas are 92% full as boat counts rise and permits constrain new supply, creating pricing power for existing operators such as…

SUI $14B
Trade Ideas Flow 6 clicks
CHWY · long

Chewy INC

Chewy (CHWY) is presented as a long opportunity after a prior 2022 short thesis played out.

CHWY $9.2B
Value Investors Club 5 clicks

New Ideas From The Road

Aurelion Research increased healthcare exposure and sees opportunities in banking and defense, alongside research on Alcoa, Nike, ONON and…

AA $10BNKE $60B
Aurelion Research 4 clicks

Oracle: The Party Is Almost Over

Oracle’s CDS spreads exceed 320 basis points as debt approaches $135 billion and fiscal 2027 capex targets $95 billion, amid heavy reliance…

ORCL $363B
David Desjardins 1 click

Site Centers (NYSE:SITC)

Site Centers' $3 per-share return-of-capital distribution and December delisting leave a discounted liquidation stub, with two properties…

CURB $3.6B
Real Assets, Real Value 5 clicks

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