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Thursday, November 5, 2026

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@convequity 2 clicks

Convequity on X

The usual explanation for CoreWeave’s credit pressure is that its loans outlast its customer contracts. The filings say otherwise. All of $CRWV’s debt is due before its current contracts end, though only just: $14.6B of notes falls due in 2031-32, as the last contract cash comes in. That distinction matters. For a GPU cloud, debt that outlives its contracts is the dangerous kind. When a contract ends the chips are old, and there is no contract left to borrow against. CoreWeave’s real problem is speed. Each new build needs fresh capital before the last one has paid for itself, and almost all of the debt sits with the parent company. $IREN has the opposite shape. Its Microsoft project loan is matched to the contract. The risk is $6.3B of convertible bonds due 2031-33, mostly after its contracted cash has ended. If IREN’s stock is high by then, bondholders will likely swap the bonds for shares. If it’s low, IREN has to repay them in cash. Which leads to an odd conclusion: slower AI demand growth could help both. Fewer new commitments would give finished projects time to earn back their cost.
@convequity 1 click

Convequity on X

$UMC's nearer-term driver is its 12nm process with $INTC, and our longer-term view is that logic folding could make chips on its existing processes faster and more energy-efficient. UMC reports Q3 earnings tomorrow, while production is targeted for 2027 at Intel's Arizona factories. The partnership combines UMC's foundry experience with Intel's manufacturing capacity, giving UMC access to U.S. production without building an American factory. The immediate attraction is winning customers and expanding its business. Folding replaces long horizontal connections with shorter vertical ones, so signals need less time and energy to move. That could make chips built on established processes more capable without matching the newest transistor nodes. Older processes are, in our view, a more manageable starting point for this prospective thesis: UMC would still need to solve bonding, heat removal and reliable production, but it would not also be introducing a new transistor process.

Investor Letters

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Problems at Twist Bioscience (TWST)

Twist Bioscience’s $200 rebound followed an Anthropic-linked short squeeze, yet its DNA and protein services face broad competition while…

TWST $8B
Hunterbrook 4 clicks

VSH Earnings Review

Vishay reported record Q3 revenue of $979 million, up 24%, and guided Q4 to about $990 million as rising backlog and margins contrast with…

VSH $3.6B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

Thursday Tailwinds #13: Nov 5, 2026

Florida marinas are 92% full as boat counts rise and permits constrain new supply, creating pricing power for existing operators such as…

SUI $14B
Trade Ideas Flow 6 clicks

eToro: Expanding Beyond Crypto

EToro trades at 2.89x EV/FCF with $304 million in trailing free cash flow, expanding from crypto into equities, commodities, currencies and…

ETOR $1.9B
Max Arnoldi 5 clicks
CHWY · long

Chewy INC

Chewy (CHWY) is presented as a long opportunity after a prior 2022 short thesis played out.

CHWY $9.2B
Value Investors Club 5 clicks

New Ideas From The Road

Aurelion Research increased healthcare exposure and sees opportunities in banking and defense, alongside research on Alcoa, Nike, ONON and…

AA $10BNKE $60B
Aurelion Research 4 clicks

Site Centers (NYSE:SITC)

Site Centers' $3 per-share return-of-capital distribution and December delisting leave a discounted liquidation stub, with two properties…

CURB $3.6B
Real Assets, Real Value 5 clicks

Coupang: 3Q26 Business Recap

Coupang’s product-commerce growth rose 9% as data-leak effects fade, while management expects margins to return to pre-incident levels by…

CPNG $27B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

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