Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
Get Daily Recap Feedback

Thursday, November 5, 2026

Back to the front page

From X

@kevin__mak

Kevin Mak on X

I think the main consideration with the CDER appointment/publication is that it narrows the gap about "Does COMP360 get approved?" Basically the situation gets de-risked by some %. I've seen some analysts suggest the probability of approval is around 75% (which I think is way too low), my estimate is in the 90%+ range. It would be extremely weird for the FDA/CDER (and White House) to give all of these "pro-psychedelics" signals to the public, and then turn around and immediately decline (or hamstring) the highest profile, most time-sensitive drug application. To be clear, this is not 100% chance of approval, because there are ALWAYS risks/weird things that can happen, but directionally, this moves in the right direction (and the recent stock price move partially reflects that). But my opinion, as I've said before, is we've got a long way to go before the market price truly reflects the opportunity for $CMPS.
@kevin__mak

Kevin Mak on X

$CMPS Lots to be excited about for the company and the space. Specifically there's been a lot of "thematic" interest in the psychedelics/psilocybin space in the last few weeks, and I expect that to continue. The most notable event recently is an article published in the New England Journal of Medicine: "FDA's New Framework for Psychedelic Drugs" (paywall) https://t.co/rdkgp5GsOG This was co-authored by Michael Davis (just named permanent director of CDER) and the FDA's top psychiatry and neuroscience reviewers. They're the group that ultimately approves/rejects COMP360 (and other psychedelic drugs). Aside from approve/reject, they will be helping negotiate/decide the "label" and essentially how permissive or strict the availability of these drugs/therapies are. The devil is in the details and hearing the FDA publicly state that they are aligned, i.e. "let's make sure these drugs get to market safely AND effectively" versus "this is weird/different, lets be extra cautious/slow with the roll out" is very important to both shareholders, and patients who could potentially be helped by these therapies. Another interesting article is here: WSJ: "Elon Musk's Inner Circle is Pouring Cash Into Making Psychedelics Mainstream" https://t.co/pfuE6JqBGD It is widely expected that COMP360 from $CMPS is going to be the first classic psychedelic (Psilocybin) drug to be approved and commercially available. Despite this being "priced in" by people who follow markets (or the industry) closely, I believe there's a good chance there's a positive public reaction to the headline when/if it comes out in the coming months. More importantly, I think we're at the very early innings of a treatment category that will be highly beneficial to a group of patients who historically have not had great treatment options. My full write on $CMPS is below, I have a $45 price target: https://t.co/rVZOU3yIz6 Disclosure: Creek Drive and its affiliated funds does hold a long position in CMPS. Views expressed are current opinions for informational educational only, subject to change and are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves the risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future performance. See the disclosures link in bio for more important information.

Investor Letters

All letters

Problems at Twist Bioscience (TWST)

Twist Bioscience’s $200 rebound followed an Anthropic-linked short squeeze, yet its DNA and protein services face broad competition while…

TWST $8B
Hunterbrook 4 clicks

VSH Earnings Review

Vishay reported record Q3 revenue of $979 million, up 24%, and guided Q4 to about $990 million as rising backlog and margins contrast with…

VSH $3.6B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

Thursday Tailwinds #13: Nov 5, 2026

Florida marinas are 92% full as boat counts rise and permits constrain new supply, creating pricing power for existing operators such as…

SUI $14B
Trade Ideas Flow 6 clicks

eToro: Expanding Beyond Crypto

EToro trades at 2.89x EV/FCF with $304 million in trailing free cash flow, expanding from crypto into equities, commodities, currencies and…

ETOR $1.9B
Max Arnoldi 5 clicks
CHWY · long

Chewy INC

Chewy (CHWY) is presented as a long opportunity after a prior 2022 short thesis played out.

CHWY $9.2B
Value Investors Club 6 clicks

New Ideas From The Road

Aurelion Research increased healthcare exposure and sees opportunities in banking and defense, alongside research on Alcoa, Nike, ONON and…

AA $10BNKE $60B
Aurelion Research 4 clicks

Site Centers (NYSE:SITC)

Site Centers' $3 per-share return-of-capital distribution and December delisting leave a discounted liquidation stub, with two properties…

CURB $3.6B
Real Assets, Real Value 5 clicks

Coupang: 3Q26 Business Recap

Coupang’s product-commerce growth rose 9% as data-leak effects fade, while management expects margins to return to pre-incident levels by…

CPNG $27B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

Publications we follow

Every publication on this site, hand-picked.

129 publications

Newsletters 109

YouTube 4

Blogs 15

Seeking Alpha 75 of 279

Nominate a publication

X accounts we follow

Every account on this site, hand-picked.

91 accounts
Nominate an account

Investor letters we follow

359 firms

Sectors

Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.