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Wednesday, November 4, 2026

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The Buyback Shows Up (ESRT Q3 2026)

Empire State Realty Trust repurchased $85.8 million of shares at $4.56 each, using 1359 Broadway sale proceeds to fund buybacks and debt reduction.

ESRT $1.3B
Orphan REITs 6 clicks

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

TOYO Co., Ltd $TOYO went from a $123.9M working capital deficit and a going-concern warning to $29.8M of positive working capital in six months. Here’s the balance sheet: → Cash: $103.5M as of June 30, plus $20.0M of restricted cash, up from $51.6M as of December 31, helped by $52.6M of net proceeds from the June offering and its at-the-market (ATM) program. → Debt: $25.7M of short-term bank loans and $51.4M owed on the VSUN loan, including interest, which VSUN (the Vietnamese panel maker $TOYO was carved out of) extended to June 17, 2028, plus $37.6M of leases. → Working capital: $29.8M, vs. a $123.9M deficit as of December 31 that had drawn the auditor’s going-concern paragraph. The $52.6M of offering and ATM cash and the VSUN extension, which moved the $51.4M loan out of current liabilities, account for $104.0M of the $153.7M improvement, and $TOYO said substantial doubt no longer exists. → Customer prepayments: $114.0M of contract liabilities (products customers have paid for but $TOYO hasn’t delivered), including $64.7M from related parties. Before June 30, current liabilities had exceeded current assets at every balance sheet date since December 2023. The June offering (4,545,456 shares at $11.00) and the ATM (414,495 shares at an average $13.78) also raised $TOYO’s share count 13.1% to 42.7M as of June 30, from 37.8M as of March 31. So the balance sheet is no longer the risk it was in March, but part of the cash is customers’ prepayments, and the $51.4M VSUN loan comes due in June 2028.
@AsifSuria

Asif Suria on X

While rummaging through insider purchases last night, I came across a company that I almost discarded at first look. It scored poorly in our quantitive model (IA Score of 36), free cash flow was just a smidgen positive in 2025, debt on the balance sheet was growing and it remains unprofitable. Yet an independent director with deep industry experience was buying. This is his fourth insider purchase since joining the board in 2023 and he picked up $408,600 worth of stock according to the Form 4 filed yesterday. The company is California-based Alphatec Holdings $ATEC and they make a robotics platform focused on spinal surgery. The stock is down an astounding 62% over the last year. Dave Demski, the independent director that bought shares, used to previously be the COO and then the CEO of Globus Medical $GMED Globus Medical built a robotics platform to help with spinal surgery, hip reconstruction and more. During Demski's nearly 5 years as CEO of Globus Medical from 2017 to 2022, revenue increased from about $700 million to over $1 billion and the stock more than doubled despite the disruption due to COVID-19. So what made me take a closer look at Alphatec? I love companies that could be at a point of inflection and I'll let the income statement speak for itself. Last quarter the company almost broke even and free cash flow was positive. Year-over-year revenue growth was about 13% but it missed consensus estimates. For the full year they expected adjusted EBITDA of $137 million and free cash flow of $10 million. With an enterprise value of just $1.65 billion, I can see this company being an acquisition target for Medtronic $MDT, Zimmer, Boston Scientific or more importantly Globus Medical.
@convequity

Convequity on X

Compute & Accelerators screen (43 names). Our Rule of X = forward growth x a sector coefficient + free cash flow margin - SBC %. The coefficient starts from Bessemer’s 2.3 for software and is scaled by how much profit a sector earns per $ of growth versus its cost of capital. More profit and cheaper capital means growth counts for more. Compute mostly runs 2.3 to 2.7. Colours: green = high score, cheap, or price down (more upside from here). High score + attractive valuation + flat or falling price: $NVDA (DCF 91% discount), $AVGO (94%), $ASML (EV/FCF 24.8x). High score but priced for it: $AEHR (EV/GP 95x), $AMD (EV/FCF 125x). Data from Koyfin, prices at 30 Oct close. A screen, not advice. Do your own research.

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New Ideas From The Road

Aurelion Research increased healthcare exposure and sees opportunities in banking and defense, alongside research on Alcoa, Nike, ONON and…

AA $10BNKE $60B
Aurelion Research 4 clicks

Oracle: The Party Is Almost Over

Oracle’s CDS spreads exceed 320 basis points as debt approaches $135 billion and fiscal 2027 capex targets $95 billion, amid heavy reliance…

ORCL $363B
David Desjardins 1 click

Site Centers (NYSE:SITC)

Site Centers' $3 per-share return-of-capital distribution and December delisting leave a discounted liquidation stub, with two properties…

SITC $192MCURB $3.6B
Real Assets, Real Value 4 clicks

Coupang: 3Q26 Business Recap

Coupang’s product-commerce growth rose 9% as data-leak effects fade, while management expects margins to return to pre-incident levels by…

CPNG $27B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

update on Gartner

Gartner’s growth has stalled after federal contract losses and cautious commercial spending, raising questions about its competitive…

IT $13B
scuttleblurb 1 click

Recycle Bin

Used aircraft engines can be repurposed as gas turbines, easing data center power constraints while tightening aviation supply.

EQT $33BRRC $12B
Doomberg 8 clicks
AMRZ · long

Amrize

Amrize (AMRZ) produces aggregates, cement and roofing materials across the US and Canada.

AMRZ $22B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

AMD Earnings Review

AMD reported $13.4 billion in Q3 revenue, with Data Center sales up 97% to $8.5 billion, and guided Q4 revenue to $17 billion.

AMD $660B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

TWLO Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Twilio's Q3 revenue rose 20% to $1.56 billion, but Q4 organic growth guidance fell to 11% to 12% and RPO declined 28%.

TWLO $33B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

Namib Minerals: Research Flash

Namib Minerals accelerates Redwing’s restart, targeting first gold this month and a ramp from 338 ounces monthly to 835 ounces by Q2 2027.

NAMM $46M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 6 clicks

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