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Monday, November 2, 2026

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BMRN Earnings Review

BioMarin’s Q3 revenue rose 32% to $1.02 billion after the Amicus acquisition, while lower 2026 guidance and $2.8 billion of net debt weighed on earnings.

BMRN $11B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click

From X

@StableBread 4 clicks

Fajasy on X

Curtiss-Wright $CW is BWX Technologies’ $BWXT closest comp, and $BWXT trades below it on every measure but FCF yield. Since naval propulsion is close to half of $BWXT’s revenue, its closest comps are other Navy suppliers. Small-reactor developers like Oklo $OKLO and NuScale $SMR wouldn’t work anyway, as they lost $73.2M and $64.0M from operations in Q2 2026, leaving no EBITDA multiple to compare against. So I decided to compare $BWXT with four listed companies building or equipping the same Navy submarines and carriers: → Curtiss-Wright $CW: Pumps, valves, and turbines for the same submarines and carriers, plus reactor coolant pumps for Westinghouse’s AP1000. → Leonardo DRS $DRS: Naval power and propulsion systems, including electric drive equipment for the Columbia-class. → General Dynamics $GD: Builds the submarines through its Electric Boat unit. → Huntington Ingalls $HII: Builds the carriers and submarines at its Newport News shipyard. Here’s how they compare on 2026 estimates (P/E, EV/EBITDA, EV/sales, FCF yield): → $BWXT: 30.7x, 22.5x, 3.95x, 2.64% → $CW: 36.3x, 24.8x, 5.54x, 2.90% → $DRS: 26.9x, 18.4x, 2.48x, 2.78% → $GD: 19.7x, 13.9x, 1.68x, 5.34% → $HII: n/a, 12.3x, 0.98x, 5.28% Note: CW’s, GD’s, and HII’s EBITDA is operating income plus D&A from company guidance, since they don’t guide EBITDA. $BWXT trades above the two shipbuilders, which earn thinner margins. HII guides shipbuilding operating margins of 6.0-6.5% and GD 10.5% overall, vs. $BWXT’s 12.6% GAAP operating margin in 2025. A reasonable EV/EBITDA range for $BWXT is 16-24x, between its own end-2023 multiple and Curtiss-Wright’s today.
@convequity

Convequity on X

Our DCFs usually assume a tech company settles into 3% growth forever. Very few ever do. We forecast growth for several years, then step it down linearly to a 3% sustainable (terminal) growth rate at the end of the explicit forecast period. Most of our valuations are tech stocks, so we use 3%: if the broad US economy grows ~2-2.5%, a frontier company presumably grows faster. But tech has little middle ground of steady single-digit growth. Companies grow double digits, or get acquired, or their revenue declines, often until they get acquired. $CSCO and $IBM are rare exceptions. Huge installed bases, enterprise lock-in and services carried them through their single-digit stretches. An industrial that has grown ~3% a year for decades is a very different dynamic. It has a mature market, a few main players plus some smaller ones, not that much competition and no real danger of being acquired. Its moats are physical; its demand saturates rather than disappears. Tech advances civilization and pushes the frontier of productivity and what humans can do. That attracts more competition and more players wanting a piece. We think three things squeeze out the middle. Products get replaced by the next platform rather than maturing. Near-zero marginal cost lets the scale leader undercut on price and outspend on R&D once growth slows. And the market marks slow growers down into cheap targets for buyers who cut costs and fold them in. So setting a sustainable growth rate for tech is theoretically more challenging. Our 3% is really a bet that the company reaches a durable, mature state. A more honest framing is scenarios: durable compounder, acquired, or decline. 3% is a blend of outcomes, none of which looks like 3%.

Investor Letters

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Microsoft: The $250 Billion Club

Microsoft’s widening gap between M365 Commercial revenue growth and seat growth eases concerns over Copilot monetization across its 400…

MSFT $3.9T
TSOH Investment Research 2 clicks

Altria: Dutiful

Altria raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.66 to $5.74 and authorized more buybacks, while on! loses share as cigarette margins hold.

MO $130B
Invariant 2 clicks
BR · long

Broadridge Financial Solutns

Broadridge Financial Solutions is framed as a high and rising free-cash-flow generator at a depressed valuation, with insider buying…

BR $21B
Value Investors Club

FTAI 3Q26: Aero margins in focus

FTAI’s Aerospace Products margin rebounded to 31% as CFM56 module output rose, while Power deposits and contracted deliveries fund its 2027…

FTAI $20B
Stock Thoughts 4 clicks

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