Portfolio Update: October 2026 + Q3 Earnings outlook
Calumet and other refiners sold off alongside AI names, but the RIN thesis for renewable fuel earnings remains unchanged ahead of Q3 results.
Calumet and other refiners sold off alongside AI names, but the RIN thesis for renewable fuel earnings remains unchanged ahead of Q3 results.
Props to @HedgeyeRetailJM and @HedgeyeRetailRW for a bang up job on this $CVNA short deck. The rabbit hole is indeed deep on this one. Accounting here is squirrely to put it kindly. @SECGov should be investigating Carvana to save honest believers from getting hurt. Even if they're not, we are...
8/ There is a lot more to talk about (24% sequential increase in new home sales, ward village condo sales etc.) but I am hungry. So to wrap up, if you're selling $HHH on this quarterly report you do not understand what you own and I will be buying your shares at tomorrow's open.
1/ So first things first, $HHH missed on top and bottom line. Am I concerned? Absolutely not. Value was created for shareholders and I'll briefly explain why...
$OII Niche leader in subsea robotics at 12x P/E. Offshore rig count accelerating (70% share), A&D growing DD, new autonomous tech a major growth driver in other end markets (lifts, etc). Investor day next week will showcase products and new LT targets. >50% NTM upside, IMO.
@TheMuffinMan28 SRS is a PE rollout, bit of a hodgepodge of assets. Concentration in landscaping, pool and roofing. No exclusive relationships (GMS is for $AWI, regional duopoly across most categories). End customers are small homebuilders (more competitive, less scale benefit for distributors).
$GMS Underfollowed building products distributor, HSD growth, favorable mix shift/ margin, tracking to beat estimates, trading at 10x EPS, 7x EBITDA. Peers at >50% higher multiples. $HD just acquired lower quality peer SRS for 17x EBITDA. GMS = $240 or +150% at that multiple.
Here is a little pricing guide for any of you looking into $HHH at the moment. Credit to @mfwarder for the format. https://t.co/MeZP5qopmR
Portfolio returned over 15% in October, lifting cumulative gains to 103.5%, while adding 3i Group and increasing Floor & Decor and…
Agnico Eagle expects low-end 2026 guidance despite Barnat setbacks, while Hope Bay, Upper Beaver and Odyssey support production above 4…
Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet…
Amazon reported Q3 2026 net sales up 12% year over year to $201.9 billion, narrowly below the $202.3 billion consensus estimate.
AAOI, Lumentum and Coherent 800G ramps, NVIDIA Rubin timing, and AMD, Intel and Arm server CPU demand frame an expert call on AI…
FTAI’s Aerospace Products margin rebounded to 31% as CFM56 module output rose, while Power deposits and contracted deliveries fund its 2027…
Microsoft’s Azure grew 48% as AI monetization accelerated, but doubled CapEx, largely for CPUs and GPUs, reduced quarterly free cash flow…
Life360 has fallen 60% despite 40% revenue growth, 100 million monthly users and profitability, as its family-safety subscriptions and…
Anthropic’s revenue growth slowed from 147% in Q2 to 45% in Q3, raising questions about AI capital spending as Amazon holds capex flat.
American Tower could gain $1.13 to $3.54 in AFFO per share if Starlink accesses 80,000 U.S. cell sites and becomes a fourth major tenant.
T · short AT&T’s stalled deleveraging and share repurchase case has prompted a bearish turn on the telecom stock.
Alphabet trades below 20x forward earnings after a 30% drop from 2026 highs, while 31.8% operating margins and AI capex frame the…
Chevron’s Q3 revenue rose 35% to $65.2 billion and EBITDA 75% to $20.2 billion, while production trailed guidance and refining margins…
AstraZeneca reported $16.2 billion Q3 revenue, up 7%, as oncology grew 17% and Farxiga fell 25% after US generics.
Sanofi raised FY26 guidance after Q3 sales grew 14.3% at constant currency, led by 34.8% Dupixent growth; vaccines declined 6.6%.
SK hynix's U.S. ADR trades at a valuation discount despite AI-driven memory demand, with 50% of 2027–2028 capacity under long-term…
Bloom may have reopened imports of scandium-containing components from China to the United States, according to new trade data.
Amazon projects AWS growth above 40% through 2028 while funding a $220 billion capex plan with rising debt and an $80 billion equipment…
Markel spent $315 million repurchasing shares in Q3 as Thrive agreed to buy ADT for $7.6 billion and Hasbro cited rising adult toy demand.
Alphabet's Google Cloud operating income more than tripled to $11.1 billion, while EPS fell 26% on a $2.76 billion SpaceX paper loss.
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