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Sunday, November 1, 2026

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Altria: Dutiful

Altria raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.66 to $5.74 and authorized more buybacks, while on! loses share as cigarette margins hold.

MO $130B
Invariant 2 clicks

From X

@SouthernValue95

SouthernValue on X

$MSFT outlining their view of digital work and application stack of the future: - Copilot as the UI/OS for getting work done - Supported by the context layer of Microsoft IQ, bringing in data from all of your other tools - Connected to an “infinite software factory” to build personalized apps that help you get work done more efficiently, running on a managed infra layer that keeps data within the rails and avoiding app sprawl - and he is clear that existing Systems of Record need to evolve to support this structure or be replaced.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

The patents behind the key-capture technique of Nubeva Technologies $NBVAF (TSXV: $NBVA) now belong to Netskope $NTSK, a ~$7.6B cloud security company. In March 2024, Nubeva sold its web-traffic (TLS) technology for $1M to an unnamed “mid-sized U.S. based cyber security company,” keeping the right to support the product’s one remaining customer (still 41% of FY2026 revenue). USPTO records show Nubeva assigning five patents to Netskope in one filing signed March 1, 2024, three days before the sale closed, and recorded March 19, 2024. Three are cloud-security patents from Nubeva’s first business. The other two cover key extraction: 1) U.S. 11,805,107: The patent behind Session Key Intercept (SKI), Nubeva’s TLS key-copying software, granted October 31, 2023 to co-founders Greig Bannister and Randy Chou. It covers software that pulls an encryption key out of a computer’s memory and forwards it to whatever needs to decrypt. 2) U.S. 11,494,484: Granted November 8, 2022, and announced by Nubeva as its “U.S. Patent for Ransomware Decryption Technology,” with Bannister saying it “underpins Nubeva’s ability to continue as an effective solution against ransomware.” Bannister, the co-inventor on every SKI patent, resigned as CTO and director on March 1, 2024, the same day the patent assignment was signed, and went to Netskope with the patents. Following the TLS sale, Nubeva kept the other half of the process, turning captured keys into a working decryptor. It filed two patents on the decryptor side in 2024, both since granted: 1) U.S. 12,430,438, granted September 30, 2025: It covers running the ransomware in a sandbox (an isolated test machine) against a known file and matching the result to a library of standard encryption methods to find the one the malware used. With the method and the captured key, Nubeva can build the decryptor. 2) U.S. 12,561,431, granted February 24, 2026: It covers ransomware that encrypts scattered pieces of a large data store, like a virtual machine’s disk, from several processors at once. Nubeva’s method maps which pieces were encrypted, then decrypts each piece with the captured keys. When granting the second patent, the patent examiner flagged PayBreak, a 2017 Boston University research system that also copied ransomware’s keys as it ran, as earlier work in the same area. Copying ransomware’s keys mid-attack wasn’t new by 2024. Nubeva’s patents protect the recovery built on top of the captured keys. NuRR, Nubeva’s ransomware product, copies keys the same way SKI does, but Netskope now owns the two key-capture patents. Nubeva hasn’t disclosed any license from Netskope that lets NuRR keep using the patents. Any buyer would want the license question answered first. Chou has said Nubeva needs four AI patents granted before it partners or sells, and two are still pending. In a July 2024 video, he said a buyer wants the patents issued, since “if you are patent pending there’s a significant discount on the technology itself.” The last two are now well past the early-2026 timing he called typical, with no new date from Chou.
@SouthernValue95

SouthernValue on X

$SKYD should probably be a ~$4 stock. Unlike $PARA and $WBD it cannot breakup/sell - the only way out is through. Thats no easy road: starting almost 7x levered and needs to achieve MSD growth and to find $6B synergies from two companies that have already been thoroughly gutted to hit their deleveraging plan. Interest expense 150% of FCF. Rates exploding higher so they better hope they can de-lever. Potential seismic changes to entertainment in next 3-5yrs from generative content and short-form competition are existential threats. With any decline in revenue $SKYD will not be able to afford its sports rights renewals and the entire legacy business falls apart from there. Putting ~30% odds $NFLX gets another shot at WB studio in eventual bankruptcy. If you disagree and you are optimistic, please share why? I'm openminded but do not currently see it. Mgmt seems shell-shocked in Faber interview this AM getting a few tough questions. https://t.co/RKBucH3xlT
@convequity 1 click

Convequity on X

$NVDA vs $AVGO: The Optical Edge NVIDIA can keep growing while facing pressure from more directions. Custom chips, optical supply constraints and specialized inference systems give customers more reasons to consider alternatives. Broadcom’s optical capabilities could help it win the accompanying compute order. Customers need both accelerators and the optical components that connect them to bring capacity online. Securing those components alongside an ASIC purchase could shift the customer’s platform choice toward AVGO. Control across lasers, photonic and electronic chips, and packaging also gives Broadcom more freedom to optimize the complete design. Embedded lasers could reduce the laser power required, easing dependence on scarce, high-power external lasers, although replacement becomes harder. For AVGO, this remains a potential design route. NVIDIA can respond through partnerships, but separate suppliers still have their own margins and product priorities. Google ($GOOGL) and Amazon ($AMZN) are expanding the alternatives through TPUs and Trainium. Our ABBX model allocates 10GW of Anthropic’s 13.8GW planned capacity to those two platforms. The plans span different timelines, but show how a few large buyers could redirect substantial spending away from GPUs. Huawei adds pressure through its integrated optical approach and the prospect of Chinese models supplying cheaper tokens internationally. That could affect both hardware choices and the prices compute providers can charge. Cerebras ($CBRS) targets workloads where faster responses matter. It can compete for latency-sensitive decoding without replacing GPUs across every stage of inference. NVIDIA’s defenses remain substantial. GPU batching supports high total output, flexibility across workloads matters, and its ecosystem is deeply established. Customers can use GPUs for prefill and specialized chips for decoding. Wider enterprise model development would also favor NVIDIA because smaller buyers have less reason to fund custom-chip programmes. At comparable valuations, we prefer adding to AVGO: it can benefit from custom-silicon adoption while helping customers secure the optics needed to deploy it. For NVIDIA, the key question is how much market share and pricing power it retains as customers gain more alternatives.

Investor Letters

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FTAI 3Q26: Aero margins in focus

FTAI’s Aerospace Products margin rebounded to 31% as CFM56 module output rose, while Power deposits and contracted deliveries fund its 2027…

FTAI $20B
Stock Thoughts 4 clicks

CVX Earnings Review

Chevron’s Q3 revenue rose 35% to $65.2 billion and EBITDA 75% to $20.2 billion, while production trailed guidance and refining margins…

CVX $465B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

SNY Earnings Review

Sanofi raised FY26 guidance after Q3 sales grew 14.3% at constant currency, led by 34.8% Dupixent growth; vaccines declined 6.6%.

SNY $108B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click
T · short

At&t INC

AT&T’s stalled deleveraging and share repurchase case has prompted a bearish turn on the telecom stock.

T $144B
Value Investors Club

Microsoft's AI Boom Has A Cost

Microsoft’s Azure grew 48% as AI monetization accelerated, but doubled CapEx, largely for CPUs and GPUs, reduced quarterly free cash flow…

MSFT $3.9T
Yiannis Zourmpanos 2 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/30/2026)

Markel spent $315 million repurchasing shares in Q3 as Thrive agreed to buy ADT for $7.6 billion and Hasbro cited rising adult toy demand.

MKL $23B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

AMZN Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Amazon reported $201.9 billion Q3 revenue and 39% AWS growth, while $220 billion in 2026 capex drove trailing free cash flow to a $42.4…

AMZN $2.9T
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

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