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Sunday, November 1, 2026

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@Fierce__beast 1 click

Fierce_beast on X

$EVLV i'm getting something like -.2/sh of real earnigns right now, and something in that ball park for next year as a base case. The downside is significant PT <3/sh if they are unable to grow into their margins, or face continuous pressure from opengate. If they succeed (let's say 25% growth and margin improvement), i also see limited upside: Here's how i get my Earnings number: Adj. EBITDA: +$15M Stock comp: -$23M Fleet wear (D&A + retired units): -$29M Interest, growth capex, net one-offs: -$3M earnings of about -$40M, or -$0.20/sh Current management missed 3 of 4 gross margin guides, and the promised shift toward subscription reversed twice. Recent trends: Revenue +34%, but ARR only +20% (was 34% five quarters ago). Backlog (RPO) up only mid-teens Gross margin 58% → 50% in two years New ARR per unit added: ~$17K in 2024 → ~$10K now Here's how i get limited upside in the bull case: revenue grow 25% a year to about $557M in 2031 adj. EBITDA margin rises from 8.5% to 25% by 2031, then 27% by terminal year 2040 or so. SBC falls to 5–7% of revenue and fleet wear to 10–12%; Assuming a 9% required return, i am getting around 4.5/sh which is the current stock price. Are they subscale? Don't they have like 9k units deployed? That's subscale? What exactly are the "scale" advantages for this type of company? How good is their product vs opengate as a total cost of ownership? doesn't look good for evolv. Says Evolv is 5x the price over 4 years but little differentiation in terms of throughput and accuracy. Why would anyone buy evolv. The school contracts covered by the FTC settlement date from April 2022 through June 2023, and on 4-year terms they renew in 2026–27. We will just see what happens thousands of units are up for renewal or if there is some switching that happens.

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Altria: Dutiful

Altria raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.66 to $5.74 and authorized more buybacks, while on! loses share as cigarette margins hold.

MO $130B
Invariant 2 clicks

When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet…

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 3 clicks

Verra veerer

Verra Mobility’s Avis termination threatens 2027 earnings, while Government Solutions profit rose 25% and implied fourth-quarter guidance…

VRRM $404M
The Oak Bloke 2 clicks

FTAI 3Q26: Aero margins in focus

FTAI’s Aerospace Products margin rebounded to 31% as CFM56 module output rose, while Power deposits and contracted deliveries fund its 2027…

FTAI $20B
Stock Thoughts 4 clicks

CVX Earnings Review

Chevron’s Q3 revenue rose 35% to $65.2 billion and EBITDA 75% to $20.2 billion, while production trailed guidance and refining margins…

CVX $423B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

SNY Earnings Review

Sanofi raised FY26 guidance after Q3 sales grew 14.3% at constant currency, led by 34.8% Dupixent growth; vaccines declined 6.6%.

SNY $114B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click

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