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Sunday, November 1, 2026

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@calvinblissett 1 click

Calvin Blissett on X

$PAHC: 9x cash flow. 26% ROE Animals have to be healthy whether the economy is good or bad, and livestock producers have an economic incentive to spend money on products that reduce mortality, improve feed conversion, increase yield or prevent disease. 22% Adj EBITDA margin. JPM $55 PT. The company operates through the following business divisions: Animal Health division manufactures and sells animal health products such as antibacterial, anticoccidials, nutritional specialty products and vaccines used in the animal health industry to treat or to prevent bacterial diseases to improve the animal’s health. Mineral Nutrition division manufactures and markets formulations and concentrations of trace minerals, such as zinc, manganese, copper, iron, and other compounds. Performance Products division manufactures and markets various specialty ingredients for use in the personal care, industrial chemical and chemical catalyst industries. The most tangible new initiative is the planned closure of Chicago Heights, Illinois. Phibro acquired the facility as part of the Zoetis deal, reviewed its manufacturing network and decided it no longer made economic sense to keep the facility open. Production is expected to cease in summer 2027, affecting roughly 100 employees. Production will be shifted to other Phibro facilities and selected third-party manufacturers. Phibro Animal Health Corporation Management says the point is straightforward: align manufacturing capacity with future needs, improve efficiency and strengthen competitiveness. Phibro Animal Health Corporation The company expects approximately $10m of one-time cash costs and about $10m of capex, with eventual annual EBITDA benefit estimated around $15–20m, largely from FY2028 onward Regulatory optionality: Brazil virginiamycin One of the most interesting hidden catalysts is virginiamycin in Brazil. FY2027 guidance assumes only minimal sales because Phibro has not yet obtained the required therapeutic indications. FY2026 virginiamycin sales in Brazil were roughly $27m. Management explicitly said a favorable regulatory result could therefore provide modest upside to guidance.
@calvinblissett 1 click

Calvin Blissett on X

$FSBW: Bought Pacific West Bank in August for 30m. Exp +7.5% EPS growth in 2027 due to this. PWBK has a 92% deposit mix NOT CDs. (attractive b/c lower cost). First Bancorp a bit cyclical due to home lending, consistent double digit ROE, conservative way to play eventual housing rebound. The problem was not that Pacific West had no franchise. It had a recognizable Portland commercial-banking niche, a relatively attractive deposit base, and specialized relationships with SMBs, nonprofits, professional-services businesses and digital partners. The problem was scale. Management acknowledged that Pacific West's size and market position made both organic and strategic growth difficult, while the cost and complexity of running a regulated community bank had risen materially after 2008 and 2020.
@calvinblissett 3 clicks

Calvin Blissett on X

$RENT Unique business model Being investigated for fraud 98% of customers rent a brand never owned, this is valuable marketing to the brands Lot of consumer data for past 18 years New CEO (Sept 14) focusing on core competencies Near 100% retention of brands since 2009 Acquisition target? The concise thesis RENT has spent years proving that women will rent clothes and almost as long proving that customer enthusiasm doesn't automatically produce shareholder cash. The turnaround is now more credible than it has been historically: revenue is growing rapidly, Q2 gross margins expanded 600+ bps, add-ons are booming, inventory sourcing is becoming less capital-intensive, debt was materially restructured, management is eliminating side projects, and AI-driven discovery is producing measurable engagement improvements. Rent The Runway, Inc RENT has never yet produced positive full-year owner earnings on this conservative cash definition. Rent The Runway, Inc So the thesis isn't “this is already a great business.” It is much narrower: If RENT can retain the revenue and customer improvements created by last year's inventory rebuild while reducing annual inventory investment toward ~$54m, shifting more merchandise onto brand-funded/revenue-share structures, and maintaining pricing/add-on gains, the company may finally cross from Adjusted-EBITDA profitability into genuine owner earnings.
@calvinblissett 1 click

Calvin Blissett on X

$ARTNA: microcap water utility at lowest P/E ever, 4% dividend. 9x cashflow. Family run for 115 years. Sussex county development expands regulated customer base. Wastewater growth engine. Its principal subsidiary, Artesian Water, is the oldest and largest regulated water utility on the Delmarva Peninsula. The company generates stable, recurring revenue by distributing and selling water and wastewater services to residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers under regulatory frameworks. In addition to its core regulated utility operations, Artesian Resources earns supplementary income from non-regulated activities including contract operations, infrastructure development, and service line protection plans, creating a business model that combines predictable utility income with service-based revenue streams.

Investor Letters

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Altria: Dutiful

Altria raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.66 to $5.74 and authorized more buybacks, while on! loses share as cigarette margins hold.

MO $130B
Invariant 2 clicks

When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet…

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 3 clicks

Verra veerer

Verra Mobility’s Avis termination threatens 2027 earnings, while Government Solutions profit rose 25% and implied fourth-quarter guidance…

VRRM $404M
The Oak Bloke 2 clicks

FTAI 3Q26: Aero margins in focus

FTAI’s Aerospace Products margin rebounded to 31% as CFM56 module output rose, while Power deposits and contracted deliveries fund its 2027…

FTAI $20B
Stock Thoughts 4 clicks
T · short

At&t INC

AT&T’s stalled deleveraging and share repurchase case has prompted a bearish turn on the telecom stock.

T $144B
Value Investors Club

CVX Earnings Review

Chevron’s Q3 revenue rose 35% to $65.2 billion and EBITDA 75% to $20.2 billion, while production trailed guidance and refining margins…

CVX $423B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

SNY Earnings Review

Sanofi raised FY26 guidance after Q3 sales grew 14.3% at constant currency, led by 34.8% Dupixent growth; vaccines declined 6.6%.

SNY $114B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click

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