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Saturday, October 31, 2026

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When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet 2027 debt maturities.

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 3 clicks

From X

@calvinblissett 9 clicks

Calvin Blissett on X

$CCLD questions I have so far for Stephen Synder (CEO) interview if I am missing anything please let me know Charlie Munger famously talked about the importance of distinguishing between technological improvements where the economic benefits “stick to our ribs as owners” and those where “all of the advantages from great improvements are going to flow through to the customers.” (Stripe Press) I think it’s fair to say AI will lower costs overall for the RCM industry for those able to take advantage of it. McKinsey estimates that AI enablement of the revenue cycle could reduce cost to collect by 30% to 60%. (McKinsey & Company) We are already beginning to see this play out: roughly 20% to 40% of organizations report broad or enterprise-wide use of AI-enabled tools across different parts of the revenue cycle, while 70% to 90% of decision-makers expect to increase spending on AI-enabled RCM capabilities over the next three years. (Oliver Wyman) How is this playing out currently, and how do you see it progressing? More specifically, where do you think the economic benefits of AI ultimately accrue? Will AI make the strong stronger and the weak weaker—allowing scaled, technologically capable RCM providers to lower their costs faster and potentially furthering industry consolidation? Or, as AI tools become increasingly commoditized and accessible, could they instead level the playing field and erode some of CareCloud’s existing competitive cost advantage? A bit similar to the last question: Could AI change the dynamic of struggling companies not being able to upgrade products and or win clients. Allowing them to improve and compete hence lowering acquisition opportunities? How much growth aside from obviously inorganic acquisitions is existing customers expanding versus new clinics signing up? Do you think about size when acquiring or is it purely a factor of opportunity and fit. It would seem intuitive smaller acquisitions are easier and cheaper. Is there a pace or target you have in mind regarding acquisitions One shareholder asked for more metrics/metrics with news. Just granularity, Shareholder assumes it will be on earnings call but affects of data breach and portion if any that isn’t covered by insurance. What you’re seeing and anticipate seeing in terms of loss of current customers and momentum in future sales. A majority of the employees are in Pakistan which is currently going through a turbulent time and is basically a junta. Do you think there's any need to de-risk it? I believe the ROI from acquisition is at the midpoint of purchase multiple (.6-1x) and target contribution margin (25-30%) on a full year time frame after 9 months to get there to be About 34%. If your stock had the same FCF yield how would you weight buybacks vs acquisitions. Given the same assumed 34% full year after achieving targets on acquisition In Q2 2026, Hadi said: “OurAI and acquisition strategies have become a single, unified growth engine.” Does that mean that AI strategy/product development has similar economics or is it table stakes and has to be invested in merely to keep up?

Investor Letters

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FTAI 3Q26: Aero margins in focus

FTAI’s Aerospace Products margin rebounded to 31% as CFM56 module output rose, while Power deposits and contracted deliveries fund its 2027…

FTAI $20B
Stock Thoughts 4 clicks

CVX Earnings Review

Chevron’s Q3 revenue rose 35% to $65.2 billion and EBITDA 75% to $20.2 billion, while production trailed guidance and refining margins…

CVX $423B
Cestrian Capital Research 3 clicks

SNY Earnings Review

Sanofi raised FY26 guidance after Q3 sales grew 14.3% at constant currency, led by 34.8% Dupixent growth; vaccines declined 6.6%.

SNY $114B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click
PSN · long

Parsons CORP

Parsons generates roughly half of its $6.4 billion revenue from Federal Solutions, serving defense and intelligence customers.

PSN $5.6B
Value Investors Club

Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $22B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

Intel Q3 2026: Dead Inside

Intel’s Q3 2026 datacenter CPU shortage reflects wafer-start planning failures, not substrate constraints, after demand shifted from client…

INTC $348B
Irrational Analysis 2 clicks

INTC Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Intel's Q3 revenue rose 21% to $16.5 billion, led by 78% data-center and AI growth, but Q4 guidance of $15.5 billion trailed consensus.

INTC $348B
Cestrian Capital Research 4 clicks

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