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Saturday, October 31, 2026

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When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet 2027 debt maturities.

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 4 clicks

From X

@leevalueroach

Lee Roach on X

Rayonier $RYN borrows at 2.29%. Their own 10-Q makes it look like 5.5%. The debt table lists every term loan at "a variable interest rate" of 5.2% to 5.9%. Take each loan's margin back out and you land on 3.62% every time, which is just where SOFR happened to sit on June 30. So that column is telling you about SOFR. It's not telling you anything about Rayonier. The real number shows up two pages later. All the term debt is swapped to fixed, and the swaps came over from PotlatchDeltic matched dollar-for-dollar to the loans they cover. On top of that, Farm Credit is a co-op, so it pays patronage refunds back to borrowers and those land directly against interest expense — $15.4M in six months. Term Loan M reads 5.32% in the table and actually costs 1.08%. Blended across all $1.86B: 2.29%. Which matters mostly for what it does to the other side. What they owe is a fixed number. It doesn't index to anything, doesn't adjust, just sits there. What they own is four million acres, and stumpage and land move with the price level. Let inflation run and one side climbs while the other stays put. Equity keeps the difference and the lender eats it. Timber makes that better than it'd be for most balance sheets, because the trees keep growing whether you cut them or not. Bad log market, you just don't harvest, and the inventory builds while you wait. Debt at 2.29% is what makes waiting affordable. Coverage is 8.7x on a 2.5x covenant, debt/cap 28% against a 65% cap — nobody's forcing them to do anything. It's not permanent. Fix averages about four years, so call it a real-rate edge through the back half of the decade. 2028 and 2029 are when it gets retested. But that's a 2029 problem the market seems to be pricing in 2026. Four million acres funded this cheap is worth more than they're getting credit for.

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FTAI 3Q26: Aero margins in focus

FTAI’s Aerospace Products margin rebounded to 31% as CFM56 module output rose, while Power deposits and contracted deliveries fund its 2027…

FTAI $17B
Stock Thoughts 5 clicks

CVX Earnings Review

Chevron’s Q3 revenue rose 35% to $65.2 billion and EBITDA 75% to $20.2 billion, while production trailed guidance and refining margins…

CVX $423B
Cestrian Capital Research 4 clicks

SNY Earnings Review

Sanofi raised FY26 guidance after Q3 sales grew 14.3% at constant currency, led by 34.8% Dupixent growth; vaccines declined 6.6%.

SNY $114B
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click
PSN · long

Parsons CORP

Parsons generates roughly half of its $6.4 billion revenue from Federal Solutions, serving defense and intelligence customers.

PSN $5.3B
Value Investors Club

Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $21B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

Intel Q3 2026: Dead Inside

Intel’s Q3 2026 datacenter CPU shortage reflects wafer-start planning failures, not substrate constraints, after demand shifted from client…

INTC $287B
Irrational Analysis 2 clicks

INTC Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Intel's Q3 revenue rose 21% to $16.5 billion, led by 78% data-center and AI growth, but Q4 guidance of $15.5 billion trailed consensus.

INTC $287B
Cestrian Capital Research 4 clicks

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