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Saturday, October 31, 2026

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When the liquidity does not add up

Arbor Realty Trust’s dividend suspension is presented as creating $60 million of liquidity, raising questions about its ability to meet 2027 debt maturities.

ABR $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 3 clicks

From X

@convequity

Convequity on X

In our view, $MNDY needs customers to pay for agent work, not just human seats. MNDY sits on Route 2 of our SaaS Survival Scorecard, contested optionality. Sticky workflows help, but coordinating other SaaS applications is increasingly something an external agent can do. An agent can now perform much of the typing, summarising and routing that once required someone to open a board. MNDY's opportunity is to capture customers' unwritten knowledge of how work gets done, which could make its agents harder to replace. We estimate AI ARR at $20-30 million, well behind selected AI-native leaders despite an established customer base. We think growing revenue-linked work could outweigh human-seat losses if MNDY captures enough revenue through API capacity, AI credits and future agent charges. A larger investment case requires evidence that paid agent work can sustain growth and attractive margins.
@convequity

Convequity on X

$TSEM Tower Semiconductor's edge is joining chips that move data with light to the electronic chips that drive them, and it has added capacity more successfully than we expected. Next-generation optical links need those two chips to exchange more data inside a shrinking space. In our view that difficult integration, not simply rising demand for fiber or transceivers, is the source of Tower's growing advantage. Hybrid bonding joins the chips through densely packed electrical connections so large amounts of data move between them in a compact package. We regard Tower's capabilities here as effectively unmatched among Western suppliers. The added capacity lets Tower fill more orders itself, leaving less business for competitors. Customers have less reason to switch to a supplier whose technology they consider weaker when Tower can meet their needs. Our conviction rests on Tower's technology. Deeper dive available at Convequity.

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FTAI 3Q26: Aero margins in focus

FTAI’s Aerospace Products margin rebounded to 31% as CFM56 module output rose, while Power deposits and contracted deliveries fund its 2027…

FTAI $16B
Stock Thoughts 4 clicks
PSN · long

Parsons CORP

Parsons generates roughly half of its $6.4 billion revenue from Federal Solutions, serving defense and intelligence customers.

PSN $5.6B
Value Investors Club

Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $22B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

Twilio CEO: ‘Buy the dip!’

Twilio CEO Khozema Shipchandler urged investors to “buy the dip” after earnings sent the software maker’s shares down 17% after hours.

TWLO $31B
The Technology Letter 2 clicks

CoStar: 3Q26 Business Recap

CoStar’s 3Q26 revenue growth slowed to 14% as bookings fell to $37 million, while cost cuts lifted EBIT margin to 8.8%.

CSGP $12B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

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