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Friday, October 30, 2026

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@david_katunaric 1 click

Mikro Kap David on X

Q3 absolutely sucked, and my performance currently stands at 37.8% YTD versus 65.8% at the end of Q2, marking the worst drawdown from a high since I started sharing my buy/sell decisions on Substack. Apparently, the Market Gods decided this is what you get for calling your last portfolio update “Half-time Lead.” …I’m just glad I didn’t use a Buffett quote. That might’ve finished me off. While I barely felt the pre-2024 election volatility, the spring 2025 tariff scare, or the start of the Iran war in 2026, Q3 broke that pattern. $EVC, my largest position, fell more than 40% from its highs and made sure I felt this one. The portfolio’s relative resilience, something I’d come to appreciate, disappeared with it. Of course, I have plenty to say about Entravision, but I’ll save the fundamental developments for later in the article. Q3 was a season of portfolio pruning (wow, I never thought I’d use that phrase). I exited two winners, realized one loss, added to a large position, saw a rare billion-dollar-plus company find its way into my portfolio, and ended the quarter with 6% in cash versus 0% at the end of Q2. I ended Q3 with 11 holdings, with the top three accounting for 53% of capital and the top five for 70%. Portfolio beta also came down from 0.95 at the end of Q2 to 0.80 at quarter end. That is still elevated relative to the portfolio’s historical level, largely because my biggest position carries a beta of 1.68, while every other holding sits below 1. I’ll save the longer performance review for year end, when we can hopefully put what I still consider a satisfactory 2026 into proper perspective. For now, I think it’s better to focus on what actually matters for a concentrated stock picker like me: what has changed fundamentally, how those developments affect the risk/reward, and where my conviction stands today. As usual, at the link below I went through the portfolio from the smallest position to the largest.

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Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $22B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

Twilio CEO: ‘Buy the dip!’

Twilio CEO Khozema Shipchandler urged investors to “buy the dip” after earnings sent the software maker’s shares down 17% after hours.

TWLO $31B
The Technology Letter 2 clicks

CoStar: 3Q26 Business Recap

CoStar’s 3Q26 revenue growth slowed to 14% as bookings fell to $37 million, while cost cuts lifted EBIT margin to 8.8%.

CSGP $13B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks
RYZ · long

Ryerson Holding CORP

Ryerson Holding (RYZ) is a long position following its all-stock merger with Olympic Steel, at 1.7105 RYZ shares per Olympic Steel share.

RYZ $1.7B
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