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Thursday, October 29, 2026

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Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $22B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

From X

@ClarkSquareCap

Clark Square Capital on X

Pretty solid technical backdrop for $LUXE. Short interest still at 4 million shares despite the big recent move. 4m shares short take 20 days to cover and represent almost 20% of the actual float (~23m shares). Then you have the company with a $50m authorization -- which could take out another 5m shares or so at current prices. In total, there could be buying for ~9m shares or ~40% of the float in the next few months. Crazy.
@convequity

Convequity on X

We think Google's ($GOOGL) TPU volumes alone could add roughly $11 billion to $14 billion a year to Broadcom ($AVGO) revenue on our illustrative estimates, and Anthropic and OpenAI are a larger opportunity on top. April supply-chain estimates put Google's TPU demand at 4.2 million to 4.5 million units in 2026, rising above 6 million units in 2027. We allow for MediaTek's allocation to rise from around 600,000 units in 2026 to 1 million units in 2027 and assume Broadcom supplies the remainder. At the 6 million-unit level in 2027, that leaves Broadcom with roughly 1.1 million to 1.4 million additional chips compared with 2026. At an illustrative $10,000 of revenue per chip, that would add $11 billion to $14 billion in annual revenue from higher volumes alone. The actual increase will depend on which designs ship and their selling prices. Our working estimates put Anthropic's demand for Broadcom-supplied TPUs at around 1 gigawatt in 2026, rising to 5 gigawatts in 2027. OpenAI's separate custom-chip program has demand estimated at 1.3 gigawatts in 2027 and 5 gigawatts in 2028. Anthropic's TPU purchases overlap with the Google TPU opportunity, so we count those sales once. Together, the Anthropic and OpenAI estimates point to around 10 gigawatts of demand by 2028. Assuming Broadcom earns $10 billion to $20 billion for each gigawatt supplied, that represents a $100 billion to $200 billion revenue opportunity across those deployments.
@convequity

Convequity on X

We added to Tesla ($TSLA) as a long-term holding in physical AI through Optimus and Cybercab, and we keep the position small. Our view is that an affordable, capable Optimus could become an enormous product, extending Tesla's opportunity beyond its vehicle business. Tesla's batteries and its ability to coordinate difficult industrial supply chains add to that potential. The position stays small because reliability in real working environments, affordability and commercialization timing are unproven. Demonstrations alone do not establish that Optimus is ready for sustained use, and commercialization could take longer than investors expect. Reports that China was slowing humanoid-company IPO activity reinforce our concern that financial enthusiasm can advance faster than the underlying technology. A rumored Tesla facility in Ningbo, near Shanghai, could strengthen the industrial case if confirmed. Its proposed role is to coordinate Chinese suppliers and validate components for Optimus V3. The associated target of 50,000 Optimus units by year-end remains unconfirmed and ambitious, and we do not build our case around that volume. Our interest rests on the eventual product opportunity and Tesla's ability to solve production problems.

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CoStar: 3Q26 Business Recap

CoStar’s 3Q26 revenue growth slowed to 14% as bookings fell to $37 million, while cost cuts lifted EBIT margin to 8.8%.

CSGP $13B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

ServiceNow Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

ServiceNow’s Q3 revenue rose 20.5% to $4.11 billion, while non-GAAP EPS missed consensus and fourth-quarter cRPO growth guidance slowed to…

NOW $110B
Cestrian Capital Research 2 clicks

OSS Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Analysis

One Stop Systems grew Q3 continuing-operations revenue 36% to $12.6 million, raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $45 million, and used $11.8…

OSS $129M
Cestrian Capital Research 1 click

Meta: A Clearer Roadmap

Meta's non-cancelable commitments reached $455 billion as FY26 capex approaches $140 billion, driving expense growth and 700-basis-point…

META $1.6T
TSOH Investment Research 3 clicks

Why So Much Copper?

Amphenol and other copper-connectivity suppliers benefit as copper remains essential inside AI racks, where low-voltage, high-current power…

APH $196B
Jimmy's Journal 3 clicks

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