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Thursday, October 29, 2026

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Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $22B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

From X

@SouthernValue95

SouthernValue on X

$SKYD should probably be a ~$4 stock. Unlike $PARA and $WBD it cannot breakup/sell - the only way out is through. Thats no easy road: starting almost 7x levered and needs to achieve MSD growth and to find $6B synergies from two companies that have already been thoroughly gutted to hit their deleveraging plan. Interest expense 150% of FCF. Rates exploding higher so they better hope they can de-lever. Potential seismic changes to entertainment in next 3-5yrs from generative content and short-form competition are existential threats. With any decline in revenue $SKYD will not be able to afford its sports rights renewals and the entire legacy business falls apart from there. Putting ~30% odds $NFLX gets another shot at WB studio in eventual bankruptcy. If you disagree and you are optimistic, please share why? I'm openminded but do not currently see it. Mgmt seems shell-shocked in Faber interview this AM getting a few tough questions. https://t.co/RKBucH3xlT
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

I listened to ~17 interviews with Jason Jessup, the CEO of Magna Mining $MGMNF (TSX: $NICU), from October 2025 to September 2026 (for my deep dive). For context, Magna owns McCreedy West, a producing copper mine in Sudbury, Ontario, plus Levack and Crean Hill, two past-producing mines it plans to restart. Here are the most important takeaways I got from those interviews: 1) Levack could be 2-3x McCreedy West: Jessup expects “possibly two to even three times” McCreedy West’s payable metal from Levack (The Resource Update, September 8). 2) R2 isn’t in Levack’s upcoming study: R2, a high-grade zone Magna found at Levack in 2025, could produce “10 to 15% copper equivalent material” even with 1-2 tons of waste mined per ton of vein (KE Report, July 10), 3-4.5x McCreedy West’s grades, and Jessup says the zone carries “no streams or royalties on the precious metals” (KE Report, April 20). 3) No more equity raises, he says: With CAD$140M coming from Alpayana, a private Peruvian mining group, for 19.9% of Magna, Jessup said “we could have five mines in production in 5 years and not have to ever do another financing again” (KE Report, July 10). 4) But three timelines moved back: (1) Levack commercial production went from “a good possibility” by the end of 2027 (KE Report, February 20) to 2028 (KE Report, July 10), (2) Crean Hill grid power from as early as Q1 2026 to Q4, and (3) the R2 resource estimate from the end of 2026 or start of 2027 to “potentially by the end of 2027” (Mining Stock Daily, August 13). 5) Skin in the game: Jessup says he owns ~10.6M shares, has “never sold a share,” and wants “a $5 billion company” by 2030 (Natural Resource Stocks, July 20), 6.5x Magna’s CAD$768M market cap at CAD$2.45/share. Levack’s PEA and Crean Hill’s pre-feasibility study are both due in October, and Jessup expects a formal Levack restart decision “shortly after seeing the PEA come out” (Mining Stock Daily, September 24). --- Link in bio to find the deep dive.

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My Last GFL Update - Hopefully

GFL’s take-private structure hinges on BC Partners rolling 60% of its stake to preserve debt portability under the 40% permitted-holder…

GFL $16B
310 Value’s Newsletter 5 clicks

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