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Tuesday, October 27, 2026

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@SouthernValue95

SouthernValue on X

$SKYD should probably be a ~$4 stock. Unlike $PARA and $WBD it cannot breakup/sell - the only way out is through. Thats no easy road: starting almost 7x levered and needs to achieve MSD growth and to find $6B synergies from two companies that have already been thoroughly gutted to hit their deleveraging plan. Interest expense 150% of FCF. Rates exploding higher so they better hope they can de-lever. Potential seismic changes to entertainment in next 3-5yrs from generative content and short-form competition are existential threats. With any decline in revenue $SKYD will not be able to afford its sports rights renewals and the entire legacy business falls apart from there. Putting ~30% odds $NFLX gets another shot at WB studio in eventual bankruptcy. If you disagree and you are optimistic, please share why? I'm openminded but do not currently see it. Mgmt seems shell-shocked in Faber interview this AM getting a few tough questions. https://t.co/RKBucH3xlT
@convequity 1 click

Convequity on X

$NVDA vs $AVGO: The Optical Edge NVIDIA can keep growing while facing pressure from more directions. Custom chips, optical supply constraints and specialized inference systems give customers more reasons to consider alternatives. Broadcom’s optical capabilities could help it win the accompanying compute order. Customers need both accelerators and the optical components that connect them to bring capacity online. Securing those components alongside an ASIC purchase could shift the customer’s platform choice toward AVGO. Control across lasers, photonic and electronic chips, and packaging also gives Broadcom more freedom to optimize the complete design. Embedded lasers could reduce the laser power required, easing dependence on scarce, high-power external lasers, although replacement becomes harder. For AVGO, this remains a potential design route. NVIDIA can respond through partnerships, but separate suppliers still have their own margins and product priorities. Google ($GOOGL) and Amazon ($AMZN) are expanding the alternatives through TPUs and Trainium. Our ABBX model allocates 10GW of Anthropic’s 13.8GW planned capacity to those two platforms. The plans span different timelines, but show how a few large buyers could redirect substantial spending away from GPUs. Huawei adds pressure through its integrated optical approach and the prospect of Chinese models supplying cheaper tokens internationally. That could affect both hardware choices and the prices compute providers can charge. Cerebras ($CBRS) targets workloads where faster responses matter. It can compete for latency-sensitive decoding without replacing GPUs across every stage of inference. NVIDIA’s defenses remain substantial. GPU batching supports high total output, flexibility across workloads matters, and its ecosystem is deeply established. Customers can use GPUs for prefill and specialized chips for decoding. Wider enterprise model development would also favor NVIDIA because smaller buyers have less reason to fund custom-chip programmes. At comparable valuations, we prefer adding to AVGO: it can benefit from custom-silicon adoption while helping customers secure the optics needed to deploy it. For NVIDIA, the key question is how much market share and pricing power it retains as customers gain more alternatives.

Investor Letters

All letters

Are Neoclouds Dead?

Neoclouds face tighter debt financing as AI infrastructure capex outruns cash flow, leaving cash-burning GPU providers more exposed than…

NBIS $42B
Daniel Romero 9 clicks

Reddit: Deep Dive Analysis

Reddit generated $805 million in Q2 2026 revenue, 95% from ads, but slowing Google search referrals expose AI-driven traffic and…

RDDT $18B
Hated Moats 6 clicks

The Data Center Bridge

Small- and mid-cap data center stocks trade as one despite sharply different funding bridges: 12 of 15 cover fixed costs on signed…

IREN $9.9B
CV's Substack 16 clicks
WULF · long

Terawulf INC

TeraWulf is shifting from bitcoin mining toward data centers, seeking a higher-quality and more defensive business model.

WULF $5.4B
Value Investors Club

Amkor Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Amkor's Q3 sales were flat at $1.991 billion as computing and automotive/industrial growth offset a 27% communications decline; Q4 sales…

AMKR $10B
Cestrian Capital Research 4 clicks

Molina & Kinsale

Molina Healthcare and Kinsale Capital’s earnings are reassessed through a long-term lens, emphasizing conviction and detachment during…

MOH $11BKNSL $8.8B
Bearstone 8 clicks

Tower Semiconductor Deep Dive

Tower Semiconductor’s low-loss photonics chips halve lasers in 1.6T optical modules, supporting a $680 million annualized photonics run…

TSEM $18B
CV's Substack 10 clicks

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