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Monday, October 26, 2026

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Merger Monday & Election Implications

EQT’s $50 billion merger with Range Resources and Ovintiv’s $1.26 billion acquisition of Logan Energy reshape North American oil and gas alongside Brazil and British Columbia election…

EQT $34BRRC $13B
Bison Insights 7 clicks

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@convequity 1 click

Convequity on X

A company gets an API key from a model provider (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google) and links it in OpenCode Console. OpenCode, the coding agent, uses that key to run models at the provider, billed to the company. It is a bearer credential: anyone with a copy can spend on the account. OpenCode disclosed unauthorized access to a legacy system being decommissioned. Keys for about 1.4% of Console users who linked external providers may have been exposed. OpenCode calls it a distillation attack. Users report charges for runs they never made. Provider terms generally make the key owner responsible, so the bill can land on the customer. A copied key works at the provider until revoked. OpenCode already runs on Cloudflare Workers, and Console is a gateway with budgets. Direct calls with a stolen key bypass Console and its budgets. Whether that legacy host ran on Cloudflare is undisclosed. In our view, customers need a control layer they own that keeps the raw provider key away from the agent and its vendor: a vault-held key, or Cloudflare ($NET) AI Gateway prepaid billing with no customer provider key, plus scoped keys, spend caps, per-user limits, alerts and full logs. F5 ($FFIV), Kong and LiteLLM offer related controls. We cannot say these would have stopped this breach. They can limit blast radius, spend and detection time: metrics we think a CFO will ask for before the next rollout.
@convequity

Convequity on X

As AI agents take over more software work, a SaaS vendor's future comes down to how much of the interface, workflow and data layers it keeps. Ahead of this quarter's software earnings, we will watch how far management is willing to change products and business models to keep that work, because strong defenses today can erode if a company refuses to change. Our SaaS Survival Scorecard evaluates the structural resilience to expanding agentic work, vendor adaptiveness, and what the market is pricing in. Route 3: customers keep working in the vendor's interface, workflows and data as agents do more of the tasks. Route 2: customers move to an agent interface such as ChatGPT or Claude but still rely on the vendor's workflows and data. At the weakest end, only the data layer remains. Route 1: customers replace the vendor, using AI to build and maintain all three layers themselves. Our view: leading security platforms like $PANW have the stronger Route 3 case, since analysts investigate inside them. Datadog ($DDOG) faces more Route 2 risk as developers work inside coding agents and call on it from there. Deeper dive available at Convequity.

Investor Letters

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Molina & Kinsale

Molina Healthcare and Kinsale Capital’s earnings are reassessed through a long-term lens, emphasizing conviction and detachment during…

MOH $11BKNSL $8.1B
Bearstone 8 clicks

“Our Strategy Is Unchanged”

Netflix’s $51 billion FY26 revenue outlook and global streaming scale underpin its core strategy as management addresses slowing…

NFLX $511B
TSOH Investment Research 7 clicks

Namib Minerals: Research Flash

Namib Minerals’ How Mine mill reached 55,000 tonnes per month, 36% above prior capacity, while a proposed $30 million Ecobank facility…

NAMM $45M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 2 clicks

Bimergen Energy: Research Flash

Bimergen Energy filed for a Texas retail-power license to supply data centers directly and gained eligibility for federal contracts through…

BESS $13M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 3 clicks

Tower Semiconductor Deep Dive

Tower Semiconductor’s low-loss photonics chips halve lasers in 1.6T optical modules, supporting a $680 million annualized photonics run…

TSEM $19B
CV's Substack 10 clicks

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