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Monday, October 26, 2026

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Merger Monday & Election Implications

EQT’s $50 billion merger with Range Resources and Ovintiv’s $1.26 billion acquisition of Logan Energy reshape North American oil and gas alongside Brazil and British Columbia election…

EQT $34BRRC $11B
Bison Insights 7 clicks

From X

@BlueDuckCap 2 clicks

BDC on X

This is a big deal. Strategic acquisition and verticalization of value based oncology care continues leaving $STLN as uniquely scare and thus strategic from here. AONC has no speciality pharma piece and yet is getting bought for 17x gross profit. $STLN is the last multi state actually-acquirable platform. What's left outside STLN is subscale: Utah Cancer Specialists (~40), Cancer Care Northwest (~30), Western Michigan (~30), plus Levitate Ridge's early West Coast platform. There are 2,000+ oncology groups in the US, but almost none with multi-state density. Cardinal has the smallest footprint and no VBC capability, which makes it the most plausible remaining strategic — followed by a payer (Carelon, Optum) or PE. Key point is that we believe $STLN is the much better asset and putting the 17x gross profit acquisition multiple on runrate 2027 estimates gets us ~$25 stock. Not advice.
@StableBread 3 clicks

Fajasy on X

How much of the $400M of ARR that Boost Run $BRUN is targeting by December 31 is already signed? Five of its seven contracts with disclosed terms can count toward the $400M target, since the July order and Cohere, $160.7M/year combined, don’t start until 2027. If Thinking Machines Lab’s GPUs are fully running by December 31 and the June order starts on November 30, the five cover $300.6M (75.1%) of the target, leaving $99.4M for contracts without disclosed terms. For comparison, the Q2 deck’s deployment schedule had $0.4B of the then-$1.9B of TCV in production by the end of Q2, with all of it live by Q1 2027. From there, the deck shows another $0.4B of TCV going into production in Q3 and another $0.4B in Q4, a straight line to $1.2B by year-end that management calls consistent with the $400M+ ARR target. The deck’s footnote says the Q3 figure is a management estimate “interpolated from disclosed metrics,” so the actual climb will likely be lumpier, with the June order alone starting November 30. Cohere’s racks start in Q2 2027, right after the deck’s schedule ends, so even without a new contract, $BRUN has signed deployments lined up through mid-2027. $BRUN’s last ARR figure was $145M as of June 30, from the Q2 call, so the Q3 report (expected in mid-November) will be the first check on H2 2026. A straight-line climb from $145M (as of June 30) to $400M by December 31 would mean $136.3M of H2 2026 revenue, in line with the $127.9-137.9M needed to hit the $170-180M of 2026 revenue its October 8 prospectus amendment still estimates. By quarter, that climb works out to $52.2M of revenue in Q3 and $84.1M in Q4, up from $31.1M in Q2. In other words, the year-end target is mostly contracted, and the risk is getting the GPUs bought, financed, and running by December 31.
@convequity 6 clicks

Convequity on X

We sold TSMC ($TSM) earlier this year and are staying out, despite strong demand for its leading-edge chips. Our view is that investors may be too confident that leadership in shrinking transistors will keep earning the same share of industry profits as more performance gains come from stacking circuits, connecting chips and integrating optics. Logic folding could also make older manufacturing processes more competitive, which would weaken the pricing power that TSMC's leading-edge investments depend on. In 2009 TSMC's leadership initially rejected advanced packaging as low-margin work before being persuaded otherwise. Together with today's cautious approach to expanding capacity, we read that as a deeply risk-averse culture. That discipline protects returns. It can also leave TSMC slow to back technologies that challenge its existing business, and by the time their value is clear, other suppliers may have secured the key customer relationships.

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Molina & Kinsale

Molina Healthcare and Kinsale Capital’s earnings are reassessed through a long-term lens, emphasizing conviction and detachment during…

MOH $11BKNSL $8.1B
Bearstone 7 clicks

“Our Strategy Is Unchanged”

Netflix’s $51 billion FY26 revenue outlook and global streaming scale underpin its core strategy as management addresses slowing…

NFLX $511B
TSOH Investment Research 7 clicks

Namib Minerals: Research Flash

Namib Minerals’ How Mine mill reached 55,000 tonnes per month, 36% above prior capacity, while a proposed $30 million Ecobank facility…

NAMM $48M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 2 clicks

Bimergen Energy: Research Flash

Bimergen Energy filed for a Texas retail-power license to supply data centers directly and gained eligibility for federal contracts through…

BESS $13M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 3 clicks

Tower Semiconductor Deep Dive

Tower Semiconductor’s low-loss photonics chips halve lasers in 1.6T optical modules, supporting a $680 million annualized photonics run…

TSEM $19B
CV's Substack 10 clicks

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