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Monday, October 26, 2026

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Merger Monday & Election Implications

EQT’s $50 billion merger with Range Resources and Ovintiv’s $1.26 billion acquisition of Logan Energy reshape North American oil and gas alongside Brazil and British Columbia election…

EQT $33BRRC $13B
Bison Insights 7 clicks

From X

@Fierce__beast 2 clicks

Fierce_beast on X

To me it's a situation where you just need one bad actor to go crazy with compute scale and it practically forces the hand of everyone else to do the same because they are scared if they don't they will lose the race. Or even better, they actually agree that you should go crazy with compute so they are doing it for rational reasons. Here this bad actor may not even be acting in bad faith and they might even be right. Look at OpenAI buying insane amounts of compute early on and many thinking they are insane and shorting stocks like $ORCL but suddenly over the last 2 months now hearing they are servicing their customers better than antrhopic and many people moving to openai.
@ActAccordingly

PAA Research on X

Quick thoughts on the $GOOG raise: 1) Management is old enough to remember when this stock traded at much lower multiples for YEARS, good time to raise capital and it's not that much relative to the market cap. 2) The demands of data center build out/token cost are even more insatiable than we thought (see $HPE, $DELL, or the $NVDA overnight news) 3) Profitability/cash flow could be headed lower in a meaningful way at some point in the not too distant future for the search business. This is the most important take away IMO. Someone explain to me how you take the greatest business model ever created in Search/Adwords where you have 90% share and replace it with LLM's/AEO, while somehow maintaining the same profitability. The structural economics are WORSE and market share is materially worse. Search traffic is DOWN in many categories and that will only get worse from here as consumers engage with #openAI, #claude, #gemini at higher rates. Honestly, I don't know why this isn't the primary narrative around $GOOG currently. I'm sure there are people that will have different perspectives on this, but ask around to people that rely on search. Volumes are down in many areas already.

Investor Letters

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Molina & Kinsale

Molina Healthcare and Kinsale Capital’s earnings are reassessed through a long-term lens, emphasizing conviction and detachment during…

MOH $11BKNSL $8.8B
Bearstone 8 clicks

“Our Strategy Is Unchanged”

Netflix’s $51 billion FY26 revenue outlook and global streaming scale underpin its core strategy as management addresses slowing…

NFLX $511B
TSOH Investment Research 7 clicks
WRBY · long

Warby Parker

Warby Parker's $25 valuation does not capture potential upside from smartglasses alongside its core omnichannel eyewear business.

WRBY $3.1B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Tower Semiconductor Deep Dive

Tower Semiconductor’s low-loss photonics chips halve lasers in 1.6T optical modules, supporting a $680 million annualized photonics run…

TSEM $18B
CV's Substack 10 clicks

Deep Dive: $ASML

ASML’s €230 million EUV machines underpin advanced AI chip production, with demand booked through 2028 after nearly $9 billion and two…

ASML $575B
Rebound Capital 9 clicks

Margin Call

Petrobras’s Morpho-1 well revived hopes that Brazil’s Equatorial Margin can become a major new oil frontier after hydrocarbons were…

PBR $76B
Doomberg 13 clicks

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