Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
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Monday, October 26, 2026

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Merger Monday & Election Implications

EQT’s $50 billion merger with Range Resources and Ovintiv’s $1.26 billion acquisition of Logan Energy reshape North American oil and gas alongside Brazil and British Columbia election…

EQT $34BRRC $11B
Bison Insights 7 clicks

From X

@ACapitalLP 3 clicks

A Capital on X

Interesting special situation in $AKER.NO, which owns ~23% of Nscale. Despite the carnage in neoclouds, the FT reported last week that Nscale may still be targeting a $30–35bn IPO before year-end. What makes this interesting is the valuation disconnect. At ~NOK 1,150, backing out Aker’s other holdings and applying its historical ~22% HoldCo discount implies an ~$11bn valuation for Nscale. Below its $14.6bn March round and well below the proposed IPO range. In September, Third Point led a $3.36bn pre-IPO convertible financing alongside Nvidia, Apollo, Citadel and others. The notes reportedly convert at a double-digit discount to the IPO price, with a $30bn valuation cap on the conversion price. Not exactly a group of unsophisticated investors… At a $25–30bn IPO, I get ~27–39% upside assuming some HoldCo discount compression. Even at a $15bn IPO, the downside looks relatively contained under a historical discount assumption. Obviously the IPO could slip, financing and execution risks are enormous, and the broader neocloud unwind isn’t helping. But you can partially hedge the sector exposure with $CRWV / $NBIS shorts, leaving a more isolated bet on the IPO valuation and HoldCo discount...
@Mr_Neutral_Man 4 clicks

Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs” on X

For those of us looking at termite/pest control companies $ROL (Orkins) scheduling was a breeze. The guy was friendly and not pushy at all. Gave a great inspection and a good quote. $RTO (Terminix) told me I had an appointment today Guy doesn’t know he was scheduled for today. Texted me about 4:26pm and was passive aggressive with the text Apparently call center will just book appointments and sales/inspection guys won’t even know they had something scheduled. Not fun to deal with. But I scheduled him to come next week for thoroughness of the research process,

Investor Letters

All letters

Molina & Kinsale

Molina Healthcare and Kinsale Capital’s earnings are reassessed through a long-term lens, emphasizing conviction and detachment during…

MOH $11B
Bearstone 6 clicks

Tower Semiconductor Deep Dive

Tower Semiconductor’s low-loss photonics chips halve lasers in 1.6T optical modules, supporting a $680 million annualized photonics run…

TSEM $19B
CV's Substack 9 clicks

Margin Call

Petrobras’s Morpho-1 well revived hopes that Brazil’s Equatorial Margin can become a major new oil frontier after hydrocarbons were…

PBR $83B
Doomberg 9 clicks

Our Views on CoreWeave

CoreWeave's financial statements point to a business model familiar to the authors after a closer review of the AI infrastructure company.

CRWV $30B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 12 clicks

On’s Premium Playbook

On Holdings targets premium growth through 2029, using LightSpray soccer cleats and higher pricing, with ASPs rising from $145 to $170…

ONON $12B
TSOH Investment Research 5 clicks
CBOE · long

Cboe Global Markets INC

Cboe Global Markets trades near $232, with a roughly $24.3 billion market cap, net cash and a 16-17x forward P/E.

CBOE $35B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Hindsight Capital

Hindsight Capital tests crisis-era investment decisions using anonymized company financials, including TransDigm, Halma and Texas Pacific…

TDG $61BTPL $23B
Rebound Capital 8 clicks

Reddit: DCF Valuation

Reddit’s DCF values shares at $225, driven by international ARPU expansion from $2.2 to $8.3 by 2035 and 38% operating margins.

RDDT $29B
Hated Moats 4 clicks

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Investor letters we follow

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