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Sunday, October 25, 2026

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@kevin__mak 6 clicks

Kevin Mak on X

$CMPS Great article this weekend in Politico about psychedelics. There's overwhelming alignment across the government to moving these treatments forward. Given this, I really can't see COMP360 getting ensnared in the approval process, or worse, through reimbursement/REMS bureaucracy once commercialized. At current prices, I believe the market is treating CMPS as a "risky proposition" because historically, that was very true. I think that regime has changed dramatically in the last 12 months. Spend some time talking to an LLM about COMP360 vs Spravato (>$2B/year in sales). Which would you rather take? But even more importantly, Spravato has <5% market share of Treatment Resistant Depression, the other ~95% of patients are generally seeking options. Disclosure: Creek Drive and its affiliated funds holds a long position in CMPS. Views expressed are current opinions for information only, subject to change and are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves the risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future performance. See the disclosures link in my bio for more important information. --- The VA has led the push in Washington to advance access to psychedelic therapy. It’s involved in 20 psychedelic clinical trials and was one of the first major health care systems to roll out Spravato, an FDA-approved treatment for depression using esketamine, a chemical component found in ketamine. Ketamine — an anesthetic frequently referred to as a psychedelic due to its psychoactive effects — is currently the only psychedelic-like drug approved for medical use. Trump administration officials say they hope more will be approved soon. “We want to see the drug approved if it’s safe and effective, and the reason why is because there’s a mental health crisis,” Matt Zorn, deputy general counsel at the Health and Human Services Department, told POLITICO.
@ACapitalLP 4 clicks

A Capital on X

Argentina should trade down in sympathy with Brazil following Lula’s win, but the distinction matters: Brazil faces a direct repricing of its domestic policy outlook, while Argentina faces mostly regional contagion and trade-related risks. Lula’s victory doesn’t change Milei’s economic program or Argentina’s reform trajectory. Could create an interesting “perception vs. reality” trade, particularly in Argentine financials… $ARGT
@aleabitoreddit 6 clicks

Serenity on X

Just another $40B going into the "AI Infra" Bubble... Elon stated this $SPCX financing would primarily fund $NVDA GPU procurement H1 2027. Which indirectly increases demand for memory, networking, etc needed. In some other notes, VPEC today in UDN: "InP substrates is seriously in short supply" in regards to suppliers like $AXTI. - Morgan Stanley believes that InP substrates, EML and CW lasers will be the primary bottlenecks - VPEC emphasized that whoever can secure more raw material supply in the future will have greater pricing power and influence in the market. Very true about supply procurement... both upstream materials like epiwafers/substrates to ultimately compute. We're in a volatile period where all your largest companies in the world are fighting over control of the future of AI infrastructure. Any slowdown seems unlikely.

Investor Letters

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Tower Semiconductor Deep Dive

Tower Semiconductor’s low-loss photonics chips halve lasers in 1.6T optical modules, supporting a $680 million annualized photonics run…

TSEM $22B
CV's Substack 10 clicks

Deep Dive: $ASML

ASML’s €230 million EUV machines underpin advanced AI chip production, with demand booked through 2028 after nearly $9 billion and two…

ASML $631B
Rebound Capital 8 clicks

Margin Call

Petrobras’s Morpho-1 well revived hopes that Brazil’s Equatorial Margin can become a major new oil frontier after hydrocarbons were…

PBR $81B
Doomberg 12 clicks
HWKN · short

Hawkins INC

Hawkins (HWKN) faces margin pressure as cost increases and municipal budget constraints weigh on its water-chemical distribution business.

HWKN $3.3B
Value Investors Club 1 click

SAP: DCF Valuation

SAP’s DCF valuation sets a $260 base-case target versus a $155.09 ADR price, based on cloud migration, AI efficiencies and expanding EBIT…

SAP $272B
Hated Moats

Duffy’s Last Dance

CME CEO Terry Duffy moves to executive chairman while suing the CFTC over Kalshi’s approval to list perpetual futures, defending CME’s…

CME $105B
Net Interest

New Buy : Zoetis 🐕

Zoetis trades near 10x EV/EBIT after its selloff, with animal-health leadership, a $9.5 billion revenue base and companion-animal demand…

ZTS $32B
D Invests

Adobe Business History

Adobe built PostScript, Photoshop and PDF into desktop-publishing standards, using free Acrobat Reader and integrated Creative Suite tools…

ADBE $97B
Speedwell Memos 1 click

The International Toll Booth

Travel software faces AI disruption, but a cheap, resilient winner could benefit as AI’s role in booking and travel services becomes…

ByteTree

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