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Saturday, October 24, 2026

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Tower Semiconductor Deep Dive

Tower Semiconductor’s low-loss photonics chips halve lasers in 1.6T optical modules, supporting a $680 million annualized photonics run rate and customer wafer prepayments through 2027.

TSEM $19B
CV's Substack 10 clicks

From X

@AsifSuria

Asif Suria on X

Looks like Nike $NKE isn't able to just do it anymore. It will need a significant amount of energy and work to regain its place in stores. I remember reading in Phil Knight's Shoe Dog book that his coach Bill Bowerman felt that runners only had a limited number of all-out races in their legs. I think they were referring to the legendary runner Prefontaine who unfortunately died in a car crash late one night in Eugene, Oregon. Incidentally I was in Eugene last year with some friends for a Ducks game and we crossed Pre's rock a few times as we drove up to our Airbnb in the hills above the University of Oregon. I hope Nike has a few more all-out races left in it. Overall I don't feel like the brand is impaired in the eyes of consumers despite their recent preference for On $ONON and Hoka $DECK. Disclosure: I am long $ONON but have been watching $NKE closely.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

One AI data labeling contract could be worth multiples of the $500,586 of revenue Nubeva Technologies $NBVAF (TSXV: $NBVA) booked in FY2026. Its CEO said in a new interview that data labeling companies (firms that turn experts’ knowledge into training data for AI labs) have asked the company to help label malware, and that most of its engineering focus is now on training its own AI model to read malware binaries. Nubeva now has three ways to pay off, up from two: → Having AI write the decryptors for its key-capture software, Ransomware Reversal (NuRR), so Nubeva can grow again or attract a partner/buyer. → A partnership or sale following the approval of all four AI patents. → Selling binary analysis (labeling what malware programs do) to data labeling companies, which could also attract a partner/buyer. Moreover, a data labeling contract wouldn’t depend on NuRR’s sales or on AI writing its decryptors, so it could come before either of the other two routes. CEO Randy Chou gave no price, volume, or timeline for a contract. But if you were to extrapolate the $200-250/hour that Mercor, one of the largest data labeling companies, pays its security experts, one full-time contractor (~2,000 hours/year) would earn $400-500K/year, just about Nubeva’s FY2026 revenue of $500,586. That implies Nubeva could earn multiples of its revenue from a single data labeling contract if its engineers and model can do the work of several contractors. A contract worth three of Mercor’s full-time experts ($1.2-1.5M/year) would be 2.4-3.0x its FY2026 revenue.

Investor Letters

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Deep Dive: $ASML

ASML’s €230 million EUV machines underpin advanced AI chip production, with demand booked through 2028 after nearly $9 billion and two…

ASML $631B
Rebound Capital 8 clicks

Margin Call

Petrobras’s Morpho-1 well revived hopes that Brazil’s Equatorial Margin can become a major new oil frontier after hydrocarbons were…

PBR $83B
Doomberg 10 clicks

Our Views on CoreWeave

CoreWeave's financial statements point to a business model familiar to the authors after a closer review of the AI infrastructure company.

CRWV $30B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 12 clicks
TCEHY · long

Tencent Holdings LTD

Tencent, valued near $500 billion, is a long idea built on its Chinese gaming, social-network and advertising franchises.

TCEHY $451B
Value Investors Club

Capital Wars

CoreWeave’s $35 billion to $39 billion 2026 spending plan relies on debt as unsecured yields reach 15%, making its GPU cloud expansion a…

CRWV $30B
Net Interest 12 clicks

Putting bear cases to rest

Medpace authorized $1 billion of buybacks through 2028 after Q3 revenue rose 8.5% to $716 million; service revenue grew roughly 12% as…

MEDP $18B
Best Anchor Stocks 14 clicks

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